2006 Atlantic Hurricanes Season Watch Center

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As it is now June 1st, and the dawn of the official Hurricane season, here's the Watch Center thread.

It will contain various hurricane information, in much the same format as the 2005 thread.

Right now, all we have is the following :

2006 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons Names Roster (To be updated when the names are actually used)

Alberto - Tropical Storm, Early June, Florida Landfall
Beryl - Tropical Storm, Mid July, Nantucket Landfall
Chris - Tropical Storm, Late July/Early August, Carribeans landfall expected.
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William
(Alpha)

Tropical depressions : a brief look.

Tropical cyclones is a catch-all term for a variety of weather phenomenon related to what is typically refered to as hurricanes.

The average tropical cyclone begin as a tropical WAVE. A wave is an assemblabe of thunderstorms and such that can observed over the tropics. Tropical waves will often be identified as INVESTS : an invest is simply an area of the world that hurricane-watching authorities feels may develop into a tropical depression.

When the storms clouds become more organized into a single larger weather system, they stop being a wave, and instead become a tropical DEPRESSION. Tropical depressions are assigned a number, starting each season with "One" (ie, Tropical Depression 1, 2, 3). At this point, the system usually does not have yet the typical spiral shape.

Once the winds of a Tropical Depression reaches 39 MPH, it acquires the name "Tropical Storm", as well as being given a distinctive name from the pre-establiehd names list for that year (Alberto, etc). At this point, the Storm will generally take its spiral form, but without a central eye yet.

Once a Tropical Storm increases beyond 74 MPH, it ceases being a tropical storm and becomes a full-fledged hurricane, usualy acquiring an eye (central calm area) in the process). At this point, the saffir-simpson hurricane scales take over, and rank the hurricanes in 5 increments of strength :

Category 1 : Up to 82 MPH winds.
Category 2 : Up to 95 MPH winds.
Category 3 : Up to 130 MPH winds. Hurricanes of this category and above are refered to as "Major hurricanes".
Category 4 : Up to 155 MPH
Category 5 : Above 155 MPH.

 

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Systems List

Active Systems
Tropical Storm Chris (TD 3) - Central Atlantic
Invest 90L - Early August - East Coast

Inactive Systems
Tropical Storm Alberto (TD 1) - Early June - Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Beryl (TD 2) - Mid July - East Coast

 

[The Big Al]

It's that time again. I'm go to have to ask my mom which storms will be big ones. She bull's eyed Katrina last year.

 

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The actual season's first invest has been confirmed, off in the Carribeans to the south of Cuba.

 

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Satellite looop of the above. Looks like this one has a pretty good shot at becoming a Tropical Storm if not outright Alberto.

EDIT : Just checked the latest TWD (Tropical Weather Discussion, from the NHC). Looks like this is it - we've almost certainly got TD 1 here ("A tropical depression could form at any time", in the NHC's own words).

REDIT : Quoth the NHC :

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN
CUBA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BRINGING SQUALLS AND
ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

If the NHC are sending in a recon plane, we're dealing with pretty significant stuff.

 

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Well, here we go. Updated the active systems list with TD 1.

(Edit) I also expect to upgrade TD I to TS Alberto within the next 24 hours.

(Re-Edit) Or maybe not. Seems like the models that had this one at 85% odds were being a bit pessimistic. Still bear watching, but it may yet content itself with drenching Cuba and the Yucatan wet.

 

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UPDATE :
Tropical Depression 01 TO Tropical Storm Alberto

Alberto marked on the names list.

 

[The Big Al]

First storm in the first 10 days. As expected this season is off to a quick start.

 

[evkl]

Update: They're expecting Hurricane Alberto within hours. It's on, boys.

 

[The Big Al]

It's looking more and more like Alberto's souther edge will come over my aunt's house. She's actually happy about this because she said they could use the rain.

Here's also hoping we don't get a rapid intensifier like have been showing up lately. I really don't think they want a Cat. 2 or 3 rampaging across Florida again.

 

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*Headdesk*

Wasn't this stupid comfounding THING supposed to get sheared to the death in the Gulf yesterday?

Latest NHC predictions have it as a 70% odds of hurricane-strength landfall over in the panhandle.

So much for a quiet start. I LOATHE Murphy's Law.

 

[The Big Al]

Beryl has formed off Carolina. Make a note: There had been no Tropical Storms so far in '04.

 

[Rayne]

Well Beryl looks like one I should watch now. Even though it's heading north, the waters east of Maryland are in the upper 70's. I'm hopping it doesn't intensify anymore, but it looks as if it will divert northeast with a cold front dipping through
Wednesday.

 

[Rayne]

Ok, been a while since the last update.

Beryl is now long dead... not a trace of it's remnance left.
Right now Texas is getting poured on by a Low pressure system that was
supposed to show signs of development of a TD.

But for now, the Atlantic seems relatively quiet, not as bad as last season to say the least.

 

[The Big Al]

Yes but 2004 had had nothing by this point. August is when the season is supposed to get cracking and has for the past several years.

 

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Yeah. Unlike what you may believe, this is an *above* average season so far.

Fortunately, we've had lots of wind shear tearing potential storms apart before they get too dangerous.

 

[The Big Al]

There's a pesky wave out in the open Atlanitc that seems to be developing into something. It'll have to be watched.

 

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It was watched, and with good reason.

TD III is in, making this June-July a quite active one overall with three systems. (Average pre-August is 0-1 systems). Not 2005 level of wrongness (Thanks good!), but still more active than it should be.

All the more so if you consider that there were one or two borderline systems that might have warranted classifications as tropical depressions or subtropical storms, but slipped through the net. Could well be increased after-season.

We've had lots of shear to date, explaining the lack of development in the systems we did get.

 

[Rayne]

Not to mention the dominance of that Bermuda High that has kept any development
of any systems at the coasts to a minimum. The down side is that they've made for
a blistering hot summer.

 

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Aaaaaannnnd...

We'Ve got a Chris!