And so it begins : Subtropical Storm Andrea discussion thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
F

Fig

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 29, 2002
Messages
12,778
Reaction score
1,046
As promised elsewhere, I'm hijacking this forum for Hurricane Season purpose now that it's officialy kicked on.

We now have our first named storm of the season, twenty-two days ahead of schedule, with Subtropical Storm Andrea prowling off the coast of Georgia and Florida.

She is currently forecast to make landfall in the upper Florida region in the next three days. She is NOT forecast to strenghten, and hurricane Andrea is a one-in-a-quadrillion shot. (Of course, lots of things in the 2005 season were one-in-a-quadrillion shot, but this time I really mean it!)

The newest advisory on Andrea :

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Click to expand...

On a more somber (...and Darwin awards worthy...) note, it seems a couple went Kayaking off the SE US coast yesterday without life vests. Needless to say, said couple is now missing, so it may well be that Andrea has killed the 2007 seasons's first two victims.
 
Last edited:
Back down to a subtropical depression.
 
Oh for...

You HAVE got to be kidding.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1005 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST AT 12/1500 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

ANOTHER one that just doesn't know when to quit.
 
They'd keep Andrea, in theory. God, could you imagine Andrea spawning Barry immediately thereafter? I mean...

(In other news, Special Tropical Disturbance Statement AGAIN! We didn't see them at all in 06 or 05, and now Andrea manages to get NHC to use them twice. State nothing happened today, and they don't think anything would happen, but it wouldn't take much of anything to go back to a Tropical Depression)
 
The problem with subtropical systems. They're persistant little bastards.

I know they're saying this early start to the season doesn't mean much for the rest of the season. However, Andrea has already done some seriesous damage to the coastline.
 
Has dome some damage in human lives too. One man confirmed dead from Andrea, one man missing.

Which means, incidentally, assuming the missing man is dead, that the number of death on American soil directly atributable to tropical storms in 2007 is already equal to the total number of the same for 2006.
 
Our cyclone season just ended here. We got off fairly easy this year, unlike last year >_>

And ow. Andrea looks bad.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom