Asteroid may hit Mars

[the gadfly]

Original source: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/ap-071220-asteroid-mars.html

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Mars could be in for an asteroid hit. A newly discovered hunk of space rock has a 1 in 75 chance of slamming into the Red Planet on Jan. 30, scientists said Thursday.

"These odds are extremely unusual. We frequently work with really long odds when we track ... threatening asteroids," said Steve Chesley, an astronomer with the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to an object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb and wiping out 60 million trees.

Scientists tracking the asteroid, currently halfway between Earth and Mars, initially put the odds of impact at 1 in 350 but increased the chances this week. Scientists expect the odds to diminish again early next month after getting new observations of the asteroid's orbit, Chesley said.

"We know that it's going to fly by Mars and most likely going to miss, but there's a possibility of an impact," he said.

If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it will probably hit near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone. Speeding at 8 miles a second, a collision would carve a hole the size of the famed Meteor Crater in Arizona.

In 2004, fragments of the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 smacked into Jupiter, creating a series of overlapping fireballs in space. Astronomers have yet to witness an asteroid impact with another planet.

"Unlike an Earth impact, we're not afraid, but we're excited," Chesley said.

Wouldn't it be interesting if it did hit Mars? How might that affect our thinking?[/URL]

 

[Rayne]

From what I gather, scientists and amateur observers are banking that this asteroid does hit Mars to make up for the lost opportunity to study our own meteoric impact at Tunguska. If anything, this may help scientists finally determine exactly what happened that day.

Witnessing the approach, finding out how the asteroid does in the upper atmosphere, seeing what happens before and after impact. This information would certainly valuable if we ever need to determine what to do in case something larger comes our way.

Also, an impact of that size would bore a gargantuan hole into Mars. We've been wondering what's underneath all that crust and hopefully we may find those hidden water reservoirs that have been predicted. Assuming the blast doesn't evaporate everything on impact, the crater would leave us a window into the Martian surface for further study.

Not to shabby for one impact.

 

[Rayne]

Mars Impact Update

It appears the asteroid on course for Mars may not hit the surface as predicted earlier. It would have been pretty neat to see the collision, but chances for it have dropped significantly; statistically down to .01% by NASA.

Oh well, at least there's always other bits of interesting info out there in the cosmos.

 

[Every Breaking Wave]

It's now been confirmed that it will miss. Sadly.