So, starting in two months now...and what looked like rather acceptable outlooks just three months ago (14-7-3, an above average season, but nothing too monstrous), doesn't look like so nice now (17-9-5 - the exact same number as last year).
The difference is, in 2006, they started with a strong prediction and never changed it. In 2007, they started low...and have been steadily letting it creep upward as we get closer to the season.
That's not all that good a sign.
In other news, the QuickScat satellite is getting old - already two years beyond its expected lifespan, and it will be an estimated four before we can field a replacement, even getting the funds now.
To quote the new director of the Hurricane Center...
"Without the satellite providing key data, Proenza said, both two- and three-day forecasts of a storm's path would be affected. The two-day forecast could be 10 percent worse while the three-day one could be affected up to 16 percent, Proenza said."
Pretty nasty margin of error there.
And since two bad news isn't enough, here's a third :
Remember our friendly neighborhood brat, El Nino? The nice little warm current in the Pacific that saved our collective asses last time around?
El Nino left earlier than usual. In fact, it's already gone. The water off Equator is much colder than average - as much as 4 degrees below average in places. That's huge (the water in the Atlantic is above average in most places)..
The difference is, in 2006, they started with a strong prediction and never changed it. In 2007, they started low...and have been steadily letting it creep upward as we get closer to the season.
That's not all that good a sign.
In other news, the QuickScat satellite is getting old - already two years beyond its expected lifespan, and it will be an estimated four before we can field a replacement, even getting the funds now.
To quote the new director of the Hurricane Center...
"Without the satellite providing key data, Proenza said, both two- and three-day forecasts of a storm's path would be affected. The two-day forecast could be 10 percent worse while the three-day one could be affected up to 16 percent, Proenza said."
Pretty nasty margin of error there.
And since two bad news isn't enough, here's a third :
Remember our friendly neighborhood brat, El Nino? The nice little warm current in the Pacific that saved our collective asses last time around?
El Nino left earlier than usual. In fact, it's already gone. The water off Equator is much colder than average - as much as 4 degrees below average in places. That's huge (the water in the Atlantic is above average in most places)..
Wiki said: