Crisis in Ukraine (Pro-Russian uprisings in Ukraine, tensions mount)

[Big Lutz]

Early this morning it looked like a peace deal, and now by this evening it looks like a coup or a civil war could be happening.

Over the past few days the protestors have been attacked by roving biker gangs that storm from house to house attacking those that think are supporting the protestors or is a protestor, to police with tear gas, to alleged snipers on the roof. This has left dozens dead and thousands injured, to the point a hotel near by the protest center has been turned into a morgue.

The latest revelation came just a few hours ago, the President who protestors are demanding resign, has fled to Kharkiv, the second largest city and the source of much of the President's power. His excuse is that he is participating in " a Congress of the “Ukrainian Front” which is being organised by the Kharkiv governor, Mikhail Dobkin."

No one knows what he will do there from shoring up support to using the military to counteract the protests in Kiev.

Meanwhile it seems like the opposition MP has ceased the Government Center and has appeared with military staff to demand the resignation of the President.

Updates of the situation can be found here

Ukraine Liveblog: Day 4 — Yanukovych Teeters | The Interpreter

and

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM

Edit: John Schindler Professor at the Naval War College seems to believe if a "Eastern Ukraine" is announced by the President tomorrow we could see a war that engulfs Europe.

https://twitter.com/20committee/statuses/436991436958216192

Financial Times is also hearing the war drums.

Russia is prepared to fight a war over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea to protect the ethnic Russian population and its military base there, a senior government official has told the FT.

“If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war,” the official said. “They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” In August 2008, Russian troops invaded Georgia after the Georgian military launched a surprise attack on the separatist region of South Ossetia in an effort to establish its dominance over the republic…

However, many government officials say in private that Ukraine falls inside Russia’s sphere of influence. “We will not allow Europe and the US to take Ukraine from us. The states of the former Soviet Union, we are one family,” said a foreign policy official. “They think Russia is still as weak as in the early 1990s but we are not.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/84909a9e-9a...resident-reportedly-flees-kiev/#axzz2u02XevFP

 

[Nero the Giant Whiscash]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

Early this morning it looked like a peace deal, and now by this evening it looks like a coup or a civil war could be happening.

Over the past few days the protestors have been attacked by roving biker gangs that storm from house to house attacking those that think are supporting the protestors or is a protestor, to police with tear gas, to alleged snipers on the roof. This has left dozens dead and thousands injured, to the point a hotel near by the protest center has been turned into a morgue.

The latest revelation came just a few hours ago, the President who protestors are demanding resign, has fled to Kharkiv, the second largest city and the source of much of the President's power. His excuse is that he is participating in " a Congress of the “Ukrainian Front” which is being organised by the Kharkiv governor, Mikhail Dobkin."

No one knows what he will do there from shoring up support to using the military to counteract the protests in Kiev.

Meanwhile it seems like the opposition MP has ceased the Government Center and has appeared with military staff to demand the resignation of the President.

Updates of the situation can be found here

Ukraine Liveblog: Day 4 — Yanukovych Teeters | The Interpreter

and

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM

Edit: John Schindler Professor at the Naval War College seems to believe if a "Eastern Ukraine" is announced by the President tomorrow we could see a war that engulfs Europe.

https://twitter.com/20committee/statuses/436991436958216192

Financial Times is also hearing the war drums.

Russia is prepared to fight a war over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea to protect the ethnic Russian population and its military base there, a senior government official has told the FT.

“If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war,” the official said. “They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” In August 2008, Russian troops invaded Georgia after the Georgian military launched a surprise attack on the separatist region of South Ossetia in an effort to establish its dominance over the republic…

However, many government officials say in private that Ukraine falls inside Russia’s sphere of influence. “We will not allow Europe and the US to take Ukraine from us. The states of the former Soviet Union, we are one family,” said a foreign policy official. “They think Russia is still as weak as in the early 1990s but we are not.”

Russia rattles sabre over fate of Crimea - FT.com

I smell a rat make that the US
John McCain in Ukraine

 

[Big Lutz]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

You mind expanding on that? And please do not quote the first post in the thread when you are the second post it just takes up space

 

[Jolene]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

Once again another country that can't democracy well. You guys voted for this guy, you knew what he was about. Suck it up and wait until his term is over. That's what we do in properly functioning democracies.

I wash my hands of this. Whatever happens, happens.

 

[Netto Azure]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

It's a very tenuous situation. This is at Russia's borders, while even though they are no longer a world power, Russia can still exert a lot of regional influence on this.

Dunno what could happen as the country is split between those that want closer ties to the EU/the West and that which wants closer ties with Russia

 

[Nero the Giant Whiscash]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

It's a very tenuous situation. This is at Russia's borders, while even though they are no longer a world power, Russia can still exert a lot of regional influence on this.

Dunno what could happen as the country is split between those that want closer ties to the EU/the West and that which wants closer ties with Russia

Your are confusing world power (also called great power) with Superpower as the US is the only superpower left

as the World/Great powers are the 5 power under the NPT
China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom the United States.
the other 2 Great powers are without Security Council vetoes: Germany and Japan.

 

[Big Lutz]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

Update from overnight

* The Parliament has demanded the resignation of President Yanukovich
* The Parliament has called for new elections in May
* The Protestors have taken over the capital with the police joining their side
* President Yanukovich has refused to step down and called it a coup
* The eastern provinces want to call up a volunteer militia to reinstate the President
* The Army so far has remained neutral

The Olympics end tomorrow, meaning if Russia wishes to reinstate their puppet they will need to start sending tanks in soon.

Edit: Russian TV is broadcasting the alternative Congress that the President is at in Kharkiv, Russian MPs are in attendance.
Rumor right now is that several high ranking officials including possibly the President has fled across the border to Russia, this is still a rumor.
Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko has been released from prison.
AFP has confirmed that President Yanukovych has been blocked from getting on a plane to travel to Russia

 

[Nero the Giant Whiscash]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

Update from overnight

* The Parliament has demanded the resignation of President Yanukovich
* The Parliament has called for new elections in May
* The Protestors have taken over the capital with the police joining their side
* President Yanukovich has refused to step down and called it a coup
* The eastern provinces want to call up a volunteer militia to reinstate the President
* The Army so far has remained neutral

The Olympics end tomorrow, meaning if Russia wishes to reinstate their puppet they will need to start sending tanks in soon.

Edit: Russian TV is broadcasting the alternative Congress that the President is at in Kharkiv, Russian MPs are in attendance.
Rumor right now is that several high ranking officials including possibly the President has fled across the border to Russia, this is still a rumor.
Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko has been released from prison.

from what been reading there is still a chance that SE Ukraine may leave and join russia

 

[Alexey]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

Okay, I really don't want to write anything about this (the things I do are law and Pokemon, and neither has anything to do with Ukraine right now), but at the same time I can't not do it, as I am in proximity to the actual events and have sources of info other than news (you can never completely trust the media, be it BBC, Russian Channel One or even Twitter)

The way I see it, these 'protests' are nothing more than pointless bloodshed, with various groups of criminals, most importantly, "pro-Russian" thieves (roughly corresponding to the Eastern part of the country and de-jure* in power until recently) and "pro-European" nazis (roughly corresponding to the Western part, and no, usage of the word 'nazi' is neither metaphor nor exaggeration: the democracy part ended ages ago) having amassed people and now fighting. At this point it's plain bloody chaos with no winners, only corpses. A bit more, and it will be a civil war, if it isn't already

Also, the Army isn't neutral, it's passive. The high commanders are just scared to take either side, as it will inevitably result in them losing their positions after the... well, war is over. The result is in fact soldiers standing by while being torn apart by the crowd. Sometimes literally.

*At this point, though, there's probably no such thing as 'de-jure' there

 

[Nero the Giant Whiscash]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

Okay, I really don't want to write anything about this (the things I do are law and Pokemon, and neither has anything to do with Ukraine right now), but at the same time I can't not do it, as I am in proximity to the actual events and have sources of info other than news (you can never completely trust the media, be it BBC, Russian Channel One or even Twitter)

The way I see it, these 'protests' are nothing more than pointless bloodshed, with various groups of criminals, most importantly, "pro-Russian" thieves (roughly corresponding to the Eastern part of the country and de-jure* in power until recently) and "pro-European" nazis (roughly corresponding to the Western part, and no, usage of the word 'nazi' is neither metaphor nor exaggeration: the democracy part ended ages ago) having amassed people and now fighting. At this point it's plain bloody chaos with no winners, only corpses. A bit more, and it will be a civil war, if it isn't already

Also, the Army isn't neutral, it's passive. The high commanders are just scared to take either side, as it will inevitably result in them losing their positions after the... well, war is over. The result is in fact soldiers standing by while being torn apart by the crowd. Sometimes literally.

*At this point, though, there's probably no such thing as 'de-jure' there

I heard there are a lot of right wing nuts in Ukraine trying to take over as well

 

[Jolene]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

BBC News - Ukrainian MPs vote to oust President Yanukovych

Yanukovych is out. This is Egypt all over again.

 

[Big Lutz]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

Sadly it might be worse I doubt Russia will be eager to let their puppet go nor his support in the East

 

[Dorothy LaRouge]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( President flees to Kharkiv )

One the one hand you have a (formerly) ruling party which had become increasingly autocratic and repressive, and pulling Ukraine into closer orbit to Russia once more (something a lot of Ukrainians, unsurprisingly, do not want).

On the other hand you've got radical far-right groups and outright neo-Nazis.

Like most revolutions, both sides contain terrible people, and there's not a clear black-and-white distinction. Hopefully, order can be restored soon and Ukraine can move forward on the path to stable democracy - and one, ideally, free from neo-hegemonic influence on the part of Russia or anyone else.

 

[Big Lutz]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( Chimea Under Seige )

Just when I thought things were quieting down masked gunmen have basically taken over Crimea, Checkpoints, The Airport, and Parliament are now under the "protection" of these gunmen, which are suspected to be the Russian version of "Blackwater" aka military contractors. Meanwhile Russia is landing planes at the seized airport and their real military forces are poised at the border.

Ukraine Liveblog Day 11: Airports Seized | The Interpreter

Edit: The New Interior Minister is calling this “military invasion and occupation.” and from the looks of it, he is right.

The UN Security Council is holding a closed door meeting at 3 PM EST

 

[Dorothy LaRouge]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( Crimea Under Seige )

From the looks of things, Russia is angling to annex part or all of Crimea. They've admitted to moving troops into Ukraine, ostensibly to secure the Black Sea Fleet's positions but an extremely worrying sign regardless. They're holding Yanukovych as well, and have thus far disregarded requests for extradition. Hopefully the situation can be resolved soon before things escalate further - with the way things are right now, it wouldn't take much to push Ukraine and Russia into outright conflict.

 

[Jolene]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( Crimea Under Seige )

Do we really need to start another Crimean War? If the Crimeans want to be ruled by Russia I say let them. It's not like they were fans of being ruled by Ukraine anyways.

 

[Big Lutz]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( Crimea Under Seige )

Russia has taken over a military base in Crimera and it seems they are trying to provoke Ukranian forces into firing, having a fire fight erupt during this silent invasion would give Russia enough excuse to send the full brunt of it's military in which as of right now is still poised at the border.

"The head of the Kirovske regional majlis, Ekrem Abdulvapov, said the following over the telephone: Kirovske military airfield has been captured. 16 military trucks jam-packed with soldiers entered the grounds of the airfield. The trucks were travelling with an escort of 2 or 3 hummers."

 

[Phoenicks]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( Crimea Under Seige )

It's too easy to vilify Russia when yellow journalists write the government's lines. Ukraine is an inchoate blob of a country (where even Ukraine meaning "Borderlands" is disputed). The Cold War ended Russia's empire and not Russia, pushing the boundaries of warfare closer to Moscow on the indefensible plains of East Europe. There are no clear political boundaries because there are no clear natural ones. Germany and the Soviet Union often clashed there; now America and Russia do.

Most wars now are proxy wars. Control of finance, machinery, minds, and guns can be just as important as who controls the land they squat on. Today it is easier to fight over these with politics (diplomats, i.e., by coercion) than with militaries. It maintains an order of sorts. Here, for example, is America's Victoria Nuland managing some pro-US Ukranian politicians. (Who elected her power over Ukranian statesmen?)

Russia went from finance and economy to military. Putin raised the stakes. I think America will blink.

 

[Majestic-Six]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( Crimea Under Seige )

Russian troops have lajded in the crimea!
Here we go...

 

[Big Lutz]

Re: Ukraine Protests ( Crimea Under Seige )

As of 20 Minutes ago, the Russian Parliament has given permission for official Russian Troops to enter Ukraine, from what I hear the permission extends to all of Ukraine and not just the Crimea, meaning Putin can take the whole country if he wishes.

Now the question is if the Budapest Memorandum signed by Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma in 1994, now places the United States and Great Britain directly at war with Russia.

Edit: Should be noted that Turkey also has a interest in this now.

In an article in last week’s Russian Pravda, it was noted that if Ukraine was divided, then the status of the Crimean Peninsula – returned to Ukraine in 1954 by Nikita Kruschev, would be open to discussion, and that would include Turkey having a say in the future of Crimea.

The reference to this claim is the “Küçük Kaynarca” (Karlowitz I) signed 230 years ago. As per this agreement, signed by the Russian Tsarina Catherine II on April 19, 1783, the Crimean Peninsula was taken away from the dominion of the Ottomans and handed over to Russia. However, one of the most important provisions of this treaty was the debarment of independence for the Peninsula and outlawing its submission to a third party: Should any such attempt be made, then Crimea would automatically have to be returned to the sovereignty of Turkey.

When Ukraine appeared as an independent nation following the disintegration of the USSR in 1991, Turkey acquired the right to claim the Peninsula back based on the Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca; however, this was not brought up by the Turgut Ozal administration of the time. Turkey was content with advocating for the rights of the Tatar minority living on the Crimean Peninsula.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie...ey-caught-in-the-Russia-Crimea-snowstorm.html