Experts: North Korea now full-fledged nuclear power

[C7CACorncas12]

North Korea has become a fully fledged nuclear power, with the capacity to wipe out cities in Japan and South Korea.

The uncomfortable truth has been confirmed by a number of experts, from the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency to the US Defence Secretary. According to intelligence briefings shown to academic experts, North Korea has successfully miniaturised nuclear warheads that could be launched on medium-range missiles.

This puts it ahead of Iran in the race for nuclear attack capability, and significantly alters the balance of power between North Korea’s large but poorly equipped military and the South Korean and US forces ranged against it.

“North Korea has nuclear weapons, which is a matter of fact,” the head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, said this week. “I don't like to accept any country as a nuclear weapon state. We have to face reality.”

North Korea carried out an underground nuclear test in 2006, but until recently foreign governments believed that such nuclear devices were useless as weapons of war because they were too unwieldy to be mounted on a missile.

With 13,000 artillery pieces buried close to the border between the two Koreas, and chemical and biological warheads, it was always understood that the North could inflict significant conventional damage on the South Korean capital, Seoul. But Western military planners have calculated that it could not strike targets outside the peninsula, and that superior US and South Korean forces would soon obliterate its Army and its Government.

Now, however, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, has the potential to kill millions of people in Japan, as well as the South, and to lay waste to US bases and airfields in both countries. It will force military strategists to rethink plans for war in Korea and dramatically increases the potential costs of any intervention in a future Korean war by the US and its allies.

The shift from acknowledging North Korea’s nuclear weapons development programme to recognising it as fully fledged nuclear power is highly controversial. South Korea, in particular, resists the reclassification. It potentially gives the North greater leverage in negotiations – and it also prompts the difficult question of what the potential target countries can do about it.

The successful “weaponisation” of the fission nuclear devices happened towards the end of last year, according to Daniel Pinkston of the think-tank, the International Crisis Group, who says that he has been shown detailed intelligence assessments of Pyongyang’s new nuclear capability by a foreign government.

Last December, the US Forces Joint Command published an annual report which, for the first time, listed North Korea alongside China, India, Pakistan and Russia as a nuclear power.

The US Government insisted that this did not reflect its official policy, but then a former US defence secretary, James Schlesinger, delivered a report by a Pentagon task force saying the same thing. “North Korea, India and Pakistan have acquired both nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems,” he said.

Finally, in January, the current US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, published an article in the magazine Foreign Affairs in which he referred to the “growing arc of nuclear powers running from Israel in the west through an emerging Iran to Pakistan, India, and on to China, North Korea, and Russia in the east".

According to Dr Pinkston, the long-range Taepodong-2 rocket which North Korea fired earlier this month is an unsuitable vehicle for a nuclear bomb, because it takes weeks to assemble, fuel and arm, giving ample time for it to be destroyed on the launch pad.

More dangerous are shorter-range weapons, some of which are mobile and therefore difficult to detect. They include variants of the Scud, which could strike South Korea, and the Nodong, which could reach much of Japan. Pyongyang also has a short-range tactical weapon called the Toksa or Viper, which is highly accurate up to 120km. The Musudan, which can be transported by road, could reach US bases on the Pacific island of Guam.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6155956.ece

Only two and a half weeks? I can only suppose that this had to happen eventually. Anyone hearing a ticking clock is not alone.

 

[ShinyFlareon]

Well...shit. I'm more picturing that "Doomsday Clock" a la Watchment, but either way you look at it, the shit's flying towards the fan now. Who knows how bad it'll be when it actually hits?

 

[GrnMarvl14]

King Jong-Il's crazy. He's not suicidal. He'll only use the nukes as bargaining tools, because he knows the minute he does anything more...he's gone. America won't stand for a country actually using its nuclear weapons. Neither will Japan. South Korea would LOVE to be rid of their neighbor to the north. China doesn't want North Korea fucking around like that, because he draws attention their way. Russia would be too pissed that THEY weren't the second country to have used nuclear weapons offensively (plus the fallout might come their way...which they know all about). And, really, if the US and Russia are ever of like minds on something...it's a good bet everyone else in the world is as well, though I only definitively see about half of Europe mobilizing for war.

Everyone thought the shit was going to hit the fan when Pakistan and India both got nuclear weapons. Nearly a decade later...nothing.

 

[Snake Bandage]

The moment they start selling things to Iran, I'm getting the hell out of here.

 

[Nicoleta01]

Hmm, I wonder how this might affect other "possible" nuclear powers, namely Iran and (according to some) Israel. Iran isn't backing down, and Israel might do a pre-emptive strike like before.
As for North Korea, I could see a newsheadline from Pyongyang stating they caught a "spy" from the South for trying to "sabotage" their nukes..

 

[Water Pokémon Master]

Why do news stories always make everything sound like the end of the world and then put in lines in the last few paragraphs saying something that debunks the scariness of the whole article?

I'm going to Japan in July, and this makes me worried. If they really did try to assemble a weapon, they wouldn't actually get anywhere like that one line about the two-week thing says, right?

*is scared since he had a dream a few weeks ago about huge missiles landing from the sky*

 

[Fig]

This is only acknowledging something we've known for years would happen.

The world isn't particularly scarier today than yesterday or a year ago. And certainly not scarier than it was twenty years ago.

 

[Snake Bandage]

Hmm, I wonder how this might affect other "possible" nuclear powers, namely Iran and (according to some) Israel.

Israel is a "possible" nuclear power? I thought everyone knows we have nukes. Sure, the government denies it even within the country, but we all know we have nukes that we seriously don't want to have to use.

 

[C7CACorncas12]

Well, in terms of scenarios, I would feel a whole lot better knowing that America, Britain, France, Israel, India, Japan, and Australia have nukes than I would knowing that Iran, Russia, Pakistan, China, North Korea, Al-Qaeda, and Hezbollah have nukes. I would think that once the tyrants of the world perceive an opportunity to impose their ideas on everybody else, they will seize said opportunity. If the basic pattern I've picked up from Stratfor and my other favorite think tanks holds up, then Japan might very well end up being the biggest player in this geopolitical drama, even more so than China.

 

[GrnMarvl14]

Well, in terms of scenarios, I would feel a whole lot better knowing that America, Britain, France, Israel, India, Japan, and Australia have nukes than I would knowing that Iran, Russia, Pakistan, China, North Korea, Al-Qaeda, and Hezbollah have nukes. I would think that once the tyrants of the world perceive an opportunity to impose their ideas on everybody else, they will seize said opportunity.

Russia's a (sort of) democracy now. When they HAD a tyranny...they had nukes as well. And never once used one against another nation. China's had nukes for...I forget. Decades and decades, I know that (I want to say they became a nuclear power in the 60s-70s). And they've never used them. Al-Qaeda's...not a country. They're a terrorist group. ANY terrorist group having nukes would be freaky, be they Al-Qaeda or one of the right-wing militant groups in this country or even ELF. Pakistan's had nukes for a decade. They're not exactly "stable", but they've got a very moderate leader right now. And the second they do ANYTHING with their nukes, India nails them. I have no problem with any nation having nuclear weapons (beyond the whole distaste of nuclear weapons in general...who cares? If nuclear war actually broke out, it likely wouldn't matter WHO started it, we'd ALL be dead). It's a matter of who has access that's scary.

If the basic pattern I've picked up from Stratfor and my other favorite think tanks holds up, then Japan might very well end up being the biggest player in this geopolitical drama, even more so than China.

Of course they would. They have a long history with Korea, and a LONG and angry history with North Korea. China's like an angry parent to North Korea. Japan's the neighbor North Korea keeps egging. Japan's likely to do more and seek bigger sanctions against North Korea because North Korea keeps fucking with them. America's only interest is that they have allies (and bases) over there, and North Korea keeps dragging us in.

 

[Mitchman]

Oh great. First the middle east now Asia. Great. I'll wait till the states pulls em out and Europe becomes the middle ground with all nuclear waste being dumped there. Nah kidding I doubt anything will happen. But if world war 3 breaks out I am getting me some virgins a couple of smokes and a pistol. No point in living if there are nukes.
LOL kidding. But hmm interesting. I wanna see where this goes.

 

[C7CACorncas12]

Japan's the neighbor North Korea keeps egging. Japan's likely to do more and seek bigger sanctions against North Korea because North Korea keeps fucking with them. America's only interest is that they have allies (and bases) over there, and North Korea keeps dragging us in.

Including building up its Self-Defense Forces into a more regular military? Japan should have enough economic clout for a task, which in turn will make China really nervous. Of course, if, say, North Korea really goes up in flames -- as in during a power struggle once it's learned that Kim Jong-Il is dead -- and Japan runs out of patience, then I would approve of seeing America tacitly allowing Japan to rebuild its offensive military capabilities.

 

[JB88]

Wow. What a wild theory. North Korea's overthrow would mean that it's okay for Japan to rebuild its military pre-1945? Yeah, right. Their constitution was amended for that very purpose; so they DON'T do such a thing again.

 

[Fig]

Not that they haven't begun rebuilding their carrier fleet anyway. *snorts*.

Japan may be pacifist, but these days they're strong believers in Peace Through Superior Firepower.

Regarding Korea, megalomaniacs have had the bomb before. Megalomaniacs will had the bomb in the future. Kim's just another, nothing to do about it.

 

[Ho-oh]

Didn't they recently say NK was years from making a missile-ready BM?

 

[RexRacer]

While I can't say that I would trust Japan with Nuclear Weapons, I think that they should be able to build an army for this crazy-ass situation. I know that Japan has been really wanting to get back at North Korea for all the shit that they have done to them. Japan has really flourished economically because it doesn't need to worry about having a military, and I would trust them with nukes but leaving them without leaves them one step behind the world, disabling them from trying anything like WWII.

 

[C7CACorncas12]

Helicopter carrier commissioned: MSDF's largest combat vessel may raise concerns within Asia

(chuckling with approval) Meet the Japanese helicopter destroyer Hyuga, commissioned a little over one month ago, according to the date in that Japan Times report. It can carry up to 11 helicopters, and its first on-the-job training mission may take it beyond East Asia, letting the people of Japan know that it's okay for Japan to reassert itself within its region.:

Japanese to take more aggressive anti-piratical stance?
Japan Rewrites North Korea's Script

I'd say that Moe Lane and Austin Bay each caught Japan's mood rather nicely, leaving China with a strategic decision regarding North Korea's new nuclear status. Japan may seek future ships capable of striking North Korean missile bases, upping the ante that much more. I can only wonder how nervous Kim Jong-Il's advisors would be at Japan's resurgence.

 

[Fig]

While I can't say that I would trust Japan with Nuclear Weapons, I think that they should be able to build an army for this crazy-ass situation. I know that Japan has been really wanting to get back at North Korea for all the shit that they have done to them.

Mind, North Korea is probably doing all that shit to get back at Japan for all the shit Japan pulled on Korea. (And China. And...well, let's just call it "Most everything in Asia. Nothing Korea has done to Japan even begin to compare with Japanese imperialism, or the comfort women.

Japan has really flourished economically because it doesn't need to worry about having a military,

Japan has a nasty defensive military, actually. They just don't have much power projection capability.

(Also, love the Hyuga, and how they call it destroyer with a straight face. Also LOVE that they call it the Hyuga, given the history of the last warship of that name. REAL subtle there, guys.)

 

[C7CACorncas12]

While we debate the merits of the Hyuga, Japanese think tanks are doing their part in urging President Obama to maintain the U.S.-Japan Maritime Alliance, reaching out to build what William Hawkins rightfully calls "A Pacific Alliance for Peace.":

A Pacific Alliance for Peace

The Sasawaka Peace Foundation and the Ocean Policy Research Foundation seek an "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" from Japan across the Indian subcontinent into the Baltic region all the way up to Scandinavia, pretty consistent with my idea of a global alliance for liberty, I should opine. Being a chain of islands, Japan is quite neatly situated to contain both China and North Korea, and no doubt the Hyuga has its own role to play in Japan's self-reassertion. I will enjoy noting this development for future reference as North Korea continues its sinister ambitions.

 

[Fig]

Remove the "For Liberty" bit and you're all set.

That sort of names tend to run in trouble the second your alliance has to do something against its title (ie, prop up a dictatorial government to prevent it from falling and being replaced by a Taliban-like government).