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Goodbye, Katrina! So long, Rita! Take care, Wilma!

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Fig

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For the none of you who didn't figure it out, this is a thread about our friend the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season, since we'll know within the next one-two days the identity of the winners of the "Retire-an-Hurricane-name 2005" contest.

The decision to require a hurricane is made as follow : first, a nation affected by the hurricane propose the name for retirement, then the world meteorological organization votes on whether the name will be retired.

We don't know all names proposed for 2005; what we do know is that (surprise, surprise) America proposed three : Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

Given their intensity, it is exceedingly unlikely that any of them will NOT be retired.

Other hurricanes may also be retired depending on the decisions of other countries. Emily (which, after end-of-year review of all hurricane data, has been reclassified as yet another C-5 - making 2005 both the year with the MOST and EARLIEST C-5), is a likely candidate ; so is Dennis (Cuba gets to make that call), and Stan stands a pretty good chance of hitting the dirt depending on how central american countries feel (remember mudslides associated with Stan caused some heavy death tolls).

An outrider possibily for retirement is Vince, which, though it was barely even a category-1, affected countries that usually never see hurricanes (Portugal, Spain); they might be tempted to propose it for retirement as a result.

In addition, several other names have been "retired" - the WMO has already confirmed that a new backup hurricane names list would be created, filtering all the Greek Letters out of action. Thus, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta are all effectively retired, if not in name.
 
I'm absolutely sure Katrina will be retired; not so sure about Wilma, though. I believe it was only a category 3 when it struck Florida.
 
Wilma's as good as gone. It cause massive damage where ever it went and broke too many records.

Damn, 4 Category 5 storms.
 
List isn't out yet (damn you, NHC! One day... *shakes fist*)

What IS out is the April's forecast of William Gray, the leading source of season intensity predictions.

He's forecasting a 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes (3+) season.

His 2005 April forecast was 13-7-3 at the same date, and the average prediction since 1950 is 9.6 - 5.9 - 2.3. (the REAL 2005 numbers were 27-15-7).

Let's hope Dr. Gray adjusted his predicting methods upward to reflect the fact that 2005 was nearly double what he originally estimated. Otherwise, if 2006 is anything like 2005, we have a Season From Hell coming up.

It is of note that in 2004, while his predictions of May (14-8-3) were more accurate (real results : 15-9-6), he still only got half the major hurricanes.
 
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Well, the list is out.

Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma are being retired. This sets the new record for most names retired at 5. Don, Katia, Rina, Sean and Whitney will be rolling in on the 2011 list.

Emily, meanwhiles, confirms her reputation as the best damn player of Survivor : Hurricane Season there is. She managed to dodge being voted off the Season List in 1987 (Category 3, Carribeans Landfall, 30 millions damage, 3 death), 1993 (Category 3, Cape Hatteras near-miss, 35 millions damage, 3 death), and now 2005 (Category 5, Mexico landfall, 550 millions damage, 6 direct death).

She's only the fourth C-5 to dodge retirement in the history of the List.

Early report have it that the plan to replace the Greek letters as a backup list did not go through, so they may still be around.

Meanwhile, the 2006 list, which we shall begin using in about two months, will be :

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William.

Kirk is the only newbie on this list (ie, the only name that replaces a name retired after the 2000 season)

Yes, this mean that for the second year in a row, painfully obvious jokes will be available for the season's K-name.

Especially if it wind up making landfall in some god-forsaken corner of the world where the last Hurricane happened around time chimps came down from their tree and learned to walk.
 
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All indications are that '06 could be as bad as '05 with the East Coast of the US being at an unusually high risk for major landfalling Hurricanes. And all indications this active period might last for the next 20 years.

'05 breaks yet another record to forever secure its place in history.
 
Right up until 2006 blow it out of the water, anyway. (Let's hope not).
 
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