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Hurricane Dean Threatens Mexico

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T

The Big Al

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Hey, I wanted to make this thread, jerk :-D
 
Well I'm the resident atmospheric science major. I can make a hurricane thread every once and while. :smokin:
 
You should probably edit the thread title to be more informative (then edit it further as the information change), though :p

(And edit the initial post so it actually give details to the Hurri-N00bs)
 
I editted the title and stuff. The links are self updating so I'll just have to update the winds, pressure, position, speed, and direction.
 
Sorry for the double post but the latest advisory has Dean as a Cat 4-5 storm in 72 hours.

It's also looking like a Texas landfall unless Dean is pciked up by something.
 
Yep. Windward - Yucatan - Texas is what it looks like.
 
In the "it jsut keeps getting worse" department, it seems Dean might be trying to develop a pinhole eye.

For the non-hurricane-watcers, yes, that's pretty much hurricane speak for "Evil Eye".
 
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What's more interesting is the development around that eye. Dean is looking more and more like a textbook hurricane which means a strong, well organized hurricane. Right it looks there will be little to impede strengthening as the waters are warm and the wind shear is almost non-existant.
 
What's even scarier is that Jeff Masters - who is usually pretty conservative on his forecasts - says this :

"Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004."

Similar intensity to hurricane *fucking* Gilbert.

This. Is. SO. not good.
 
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Category 5 'canes. Not good indeed.

I've updated the first post with the new information. I've also added landfall and areas affected lines.

Unfortunately it's looking more and more likey Texas will bear the brunt of Dean. Prepare for outrageous gas prices.
 
*crosses fingers and hopes it misses Louisiana*
 
The track has shifted slightly north taking Dean right over Jamaica. It also make it more liely to thread the needle between Cuba and the mainland into the Gulf. It also makes U.S. landfall all the more likely.

What's really scary is that the wind probably table goes "N/A" in 72 hours meaning Dean will LIKELY be a Cat 4-5.
 
Major hurricane Dean at Category 3 now. 50% of a Category 4/5 within 12 hours.

And the worst part? The GFDL model has veered still further west.

And by further west, I mean the absolute worst case scenario.

NOLA.
 
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Yep, that's definitely what I'm hearing too.
 
Forecasts say nothing is out there to really impede strengthening. Though with insanely strong Hurricanes fluctuation during eyewall replacement can be expected.

GFDL is the outsider in forecasting right now. However, it's proven very accurate with storm tracks. Does it know something we don't?
 
Let's hope it's just being wrong.
 
8PM Update - Category 4, 130 MPH, 946 MB.
 
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