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Note: Parts of this post require special attention to terms involving the data structure of the games, but they should mostly be self-explanatory. For the sake of convenience, I will refer to Notched-ear Pichu as "NEP" and to the Pikachu-colored Pichu as "PCP" throughout this thread.
It seems to me from browsing different forums that most western fans look down on NEP and have little interest in seeing how it will be incorporated into the games. When it was unveiled half a year ago, it was passed off by most as representing either a new gender difference or an anime-exclusive design. Surprisingly, not many considered it in terms of foreshadowing potential Gold and Silver remakes; when the game titles were announced over a month ago, rumors circulated that NEP would turn out to be representative of a new breeding feature fusing compatible Pokémon together. A few days later, it became clear that its presence in the game would have to do with the event-exclusive PCP, essentially debunking the rumor. Still, some fans continued to question whether or not it would be actually be obtainable via this method (if at all), but that uncertainty has now been removed.
Being associated with an in-game event leaves almost no doubt that that is the only way NEP will be available in the remakes. The event could be repeated on subsequent occasions (such as by distributing an Odd Egg carrying the PCP), but it would still be the same method of acquiring NEP. In other words, NEP will be an event-exclusive critter at least as far the remakes are concerned (I believe that the Rotom forms will no longer require the Secret Key in post-Platinum games). This rules out the possibility of a new breeding feature related to NEP.
There is little in the way of actual data on NEP that has been revealed so far. One of the most important details that can be derived at this point is the fact that NEP's special ear is inherent, which is to say that it can't revert to a normal one. Unlike with Deoxys, Giratina, Shaymin and Rotom, which all have fairly elaborate abilities to switch their forms, it would not make sense if NEP had its sprite changed when traded to DPPt versions. Even in Generation I, Yellow's Pikachu had a discernible reason to suddenly return to its ball when traded to other games (not feeling attached to its new trainer), as did shiny Generation I critters have an excuse not to look special (the games used a monochrome palette outside SNES gameplay and non-Japanese Yellow versions).
Supposing that NEP only had a unique sprite and that Game Freak didn't care about the lack of plausibility behind its losing that factor upon being traded, there would still be a more substantial issue with which to contend. NEP would, of course, be meant go back to being unique when returned to HGSS versions; to do this, there would have to be a mechanism automatically generating the alternate form byte from another byte in the data structure. In order to keep NEP exclusive to the event, that byte would most likely be the one for its caught location (Ilex Forest), which should be exclusive to it. However, DPPt can only interpret a byte for a HGSS location as simply "Johto", which is to say that even if the traded NEP retained its special byte, to a DPPt player it would look like any regular Pichu obtained from HGSS. Granted, NEP might also have a Fateful Encounter flag to indicate its uniqueness, but how many players would be aware of that? Many fans still don't know that the trigger for the Gracidea Flower is Shaymin's Fateful Encounter flag, so how would this be different?
Besides, casual players at young ages form the target demographic, and those players would by and large be oblivious of why the flag is important. This would create a situation where a Johto Pichu could be traded to a greedy DPPt player, who would then pass it off as NEP to unsuspecting DPPt players, resulting in unfair trades. This problem would be especially prevalent in the period of time between the remakes' Japanese and American release dates, since quite a few American DPPt players would want to get NEP in advance even if it didn't look special at first. But if they were to get fooled into giving something precious for a normal Pichu, it would be too late by the time they realized their mistake (possibly months after the trade).
Trading NEP to DPPt games would defeat the purpose of making it exclusive to the in-game event and having its ear be an inherent feature. Deoxys, Giratina, Shaymin and Rotom are supposed to switch forms, and it is understood by virtually every player that even if they appear in their original forms before the trade, they can be made to revert afterwards. NEP would be a different case - with its real identity not being clear until after the trade has been completed - and that drawback would be far more significant than the slight inconvenience caused to non-Japanese players if they couldn't get NEP prior to buying their HGSS games (particularly since they could still make do with a PCP in the meantime, which will achieve the same result).
I would also like to point out that NEP's Sugimori artwork has yet to be revealed, which implies that it may also have hidden attributes that have been kept a secret. In particular, it has not been hinted in any way that it can evolve; on the contrary, the PCP is being distributed with an Everstone and a moveset that makes it a viable battler without evolving (owing to the Endure+Quick Attack strategy). Now, NEP is undoubtedly more special than its shiny counterpart, and thus is likely to have an even greater incentive to stay unevolved - by way of possessing increased base stats. This would require assigning NEP a separate index number, as is the case with Deoxys, Wormadam, Rotom, Giratina and Shaymin (whereas Unown, Spinda, Burmy, Shellos and Gastrodon only have a special byte influencing a sprite difference). If that were the case, it would be possible for NEP to be unable to evolve. It is notable that the lack of evolutions would ensure that NEP not be able to breed and produce offsprings of the same kind, thus maintaining its event-exclusive status (although a Manaphy/Phione-like scenario could be pulled off if NEP were able to evolve). All of this would make it even more mandatory to restrict NEP to the remakes, since it would otherwise still manage to evolve and lose its uniqueness forever.
Finally, it would be rather easy to come up with an explanation for the inability to trade NEP to Sinnoh. Since I highly doubt that it is a coincidence that the movie NEP is a character from the ancient past and the game counterpart is associated with the Ilex Forest shrine (which, in turn, is associated with Celebi), we can expect that NEP will be established as having come from the past. Should that be the case, the games might very well refer to the shrine as NEP's power source, without which its existence in present time could not be sustained. In other words, trading NEP to a faraway region would be viewed as being akin to sending it back to the past, thereby rationalizing why the game wouldn't allow it to happen.
In conclusion, I am greatly inclined to believe that NEP will make an exception to the so-called rule of maintaining full compatibility between games of the same generation. That step has already been taken with held items as Platinum demonstrated with the Griseous Orb. Considering that it has been three years since Generation IV started, I see nothing wrong with keeping new Pokémon exclusive to the newest games without forcing their way into the older ones.
It seems to me from browsing different forums that most western fans look down on NEP and have little interest in seeing how it will be incorporated into the games. When it was unveiled half a year ago, it was passed off by most as representing either a new gender difference or an anime-exclusive design. Surprisingly, not many considered it in terms of foreshadowing potential Gold and Silver remakes; when the game titles were announced over a month ago, rumors circulated that NEP would turn out to be representative of a new breeding feature fusing compatible Pokémon together. A few days later, it became clear that its presence in the game would have to do with the event-exclusive PCP, essentially debunking the rumor. Still, some fans continued to question whether or not it would be actually be obtainable via this method (if at all), but that uncertainty has now been removed.
Being associated with an in-game event leaves almost no doubt that that is the only way NEP will be available in the remakes. The event could be repeated on subsequent occasions (such as by distributing an Odd Egg carrying the PCP), but it would still be the same method of acquiring NEP. In other words, NEP will be an event-exclusive critter at least as far the remakes are concerned (I believe that the Rotom forms will no longer require the Secret Key in post-Platinum games). This rules out the possibility of a new breeding feature related to NEP.
There is little in the way of actual data on NEP that has been revealed so far. One of the most important details that can be derived at this point is the fact that NEP's special ear is inherent, which is to say that it can't revert to a normal one. Unlike with Deoxys, Giratina, Shaymin and Rotom, which all have fairly elaborate abilities to switch their forms, it would not make sense if NEP had its sprite changed when traded to DPPt versions. Even in Generation I, Yellow's Pikachu had a discernible reason to suddenly return to its ball when traded to other games (not feeling attached to its new trainer), as did shiny Generation I critters have an excuse not to look special (the games used a monochrome palette outside SNES gameplay and non-Japanese Yellow versions).
Supposing that NEP only had a unique sprite and that Game Freak didn't care about the lack of plausibility behind its losing that factor upon being traded, there would still be a more substantial issue with which to contend. NEP would, of course, be meant go back to being unique when returned to HGSS versions; to do this, there would have to be a mechanism automatically generating the alternate form byte from another byte in the data structure. In order to keep NEP exclusive to the event, that byte would most likely be the one for its caught location (Ilex Forest), which should be exclusive to it. However, DPPt can only interpret a byte for a HGSS location as simply "Johto", which is to say that even if the traded NEP retained its special byte, to a DPPt player it would look like any regular Pichu obtained from HGSS. Granted, NEP might also have a Fateful Encounter flag to indicate its uniqueness, but how many players would be aware of that? Many fans still don't know that the trigger for the Gracidea Flower is Shaymin's Fateful Encounter flag, so how would this be different?
Besides, casual players at young ages form the target demographic, and those players would by and large be oblivious of why the flag is important. This would create a situation where a Johto Pichu could be traded to a greedy DPPt player, who would then pass it off as NEP to unsuspecting DPPt players, resulting in unfair trades. This problem would be especially prevalent in the period of time between the remakes' Japanese and American release dates, since quite a few American DPPt players would want to get NEP in advance even if it didn't look special at first. But if they were to get fooled into giving something precious for a normal Pichu, it would be too late by the time they realized their mistake (possibly months after the trade).
Trading NEP to DPPt games would defeat the purpose of making it exclusive to the in-game event and having its ear be an inherent feature. Deoxys, Giratina, Shaymin and Rotom are supposed to switch forms, and it is understood by virtually every player that even if they appear in their original forms before the trade, they can be made to revert afterwards. NEP would be a different case - with its real identity not being clear until after the trade has been completed - and that drawback would be far more significant than the slight inconvenience caused to non-Japanese players if they couldn't get NEP prior to buying their HGSS games (particularly since they could still make do with a PCP in the meantime, which will achieve the same result).
I would also like to point out that NEP's Sugimori artwork has yet to be revealed, which implies that it may also have hidden attributes that have been kept a secret. In particular, it has not been hinted in any way that it can evolve; on the contrary, the PCP is being distributed with an Everstone and a moveset that makes it a viable battler without evolving (owing to the Endure+Quick Attack strategy). Now, NEP is undoubtedly more special than its shiny counterpart, and thus is likely to have an even greater incentive to stay unevolved - by way of possessing increased base stats. This would require assigning NEP a separate index number, as is the case with Deoxys, Wormadam, Rotom, Giratina and Shaymin (whereas Unown, Spinda, Burmy, Shellos and Gastrodon only have a special byte influencing a sprite difference). If that were the case, it would be possible for NEP to be unable to evolve. It is notable that the lack of evolutions would ensure that NEP not be able to breed and produce offsprings of the same kind, thus maintaining its event-exclusive status (although a Manaphy/Phione-like scenario could be pulled off if NEP were able to evolve). All of this would make it even more mandatory to restrict NEP to the remakes, since it would otherwise still manage to evolve and lose its uniqueness forever.
Finally, it would be rather easy to come up with an explanation for the inability to trade NEP to Sinnoh. Since I highly doubt that it is a coincidence that the movie NEP is a character from the ancient past and the game counterpart is associated with the Ilex Forest shrine (which, in turn, is associated with Celebi), we can expect that NEP will be established as having come from the past. Should that be the case, the games might very well refer to the shrine as NEP's power source, without which its existence in present time could not be sustained. In other words, trading NEP to a faraway region would be viewed as being akin to sending it back to the past, thereby rationalizing why the game wouldn't allow it to happen.
In conclusion, I am greatly inclined to believe that NEP will make an exception to the so-called rule of maintaining full compatibility between games of the same generation. That step has already been taken with held items as Platinum demonstrated with the Griseous Orb. Considering that it has been three years since Generation IV started, I see nothing wrong with keeping new Pokémon exclusive to the newest games without forcing their way into the older ones.
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