Misty
I'm the TRASH MAN! I eat GAHBAGE!
- Joined
- Mar 3, 2005
- Messages
- 5,218
- Reaction score
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- #1
In a surprising twist, a new document from the CIA indicates that Iran has ceased and failed to restart their nuclear weapons development program since 2003.
- The Bush administration is keen to point out that the weapons development program existed at all, which raises some questions about Iran's true intent.
- Moderates in the US, Europe, and the IAEA seem mostly vindicated and remain committed to their current course of tough diplomacy and multilateralism.
- Russia and China have an enhanced skepticism, which could make further UN sanctions more difficult to pass, or more likely to be watered down.
- Iran, of course, frames the report as vindicating their own positions.
I think it's easy to envision the status quo persisting as a result of this development - the US will push Iran harder, Iran won't budge, Russia and China will block any UN action, and Europe will try rather futilely to make meaningful progress. Of course, the very best thing for Iran to do would be to step up negotiations with the IAEA, which would cement support from Russia and China and make it much more difficult for the US to justify military action. Whether this happens, I don't know - Iran may end up doing just the opposite, which they've done in the past in response to pressure.
- The Bush administration is keen to point out that the weapons development program existed at all, which raises some questions about Iran's true intent.
- Moderates in the US, Europe, and the IAEA seem mostly vindicated and remain committed to their current course of tough diplomacy and multilateralism.
- Russia and China have an enhanced skepticism, which could make further UN sanctions more difficult to pass, or more likely to be watered down.
- Iran, of course, frames the report as vindicating their own positions.
I think it's easy to envision the status quo persisting as a result of this development - the US will push Iran harder, Iran won't budge, Russia and China will block any UN action, and Europe will try rather futilely to make meaningful progress. Of course, the very best thing for Iran to do would be to step up negotiations with the IAEA, which would cement support from Russia and China and make it much more difficult for the US to justify military action. Whether this happens, I don't know - Iran may end up doing just the opposite, which they've done in the past in response to pressure.