New Nintendo system: NX

[----]

During a recent press conference, a new Nintendo system was announced. I personally think this is a bit early, but what do you guys think?

 

[Bolt Strike]

Keep in mind that it will simply be revealed in 2016, it may not be released until 2017. Either way, that's about the right time for a next gen console IMO, Nintendo can't wait too long to release NX or else people will lose interest in their consoles and risk allowing Microsoft and Sony to leave them even further behind.

Anyway, the fact that they referenced one device is suspicious, I have a feeling this may actually be a merged handheld/console.

 

[Aulos]

If it doesn't release for a couple more years (most likely) than it gives the Wii U a healthy lifespan.

Still, the Wii U releases have been pretty good, and there's still so much more they could do, so this does make me a little sad. I feel like I just got it yesterday!

 

[dman_dustin]

(SPECULATION) It's going to be called the Nintendo VR and it's going to be a complete monster of a machine, that'll kick Sony and Microsoft so out into the water, they won't even have time recuperate to prevent from drowning. Armed with the most modern technology (at the time) condensed and created their way, it will be 10X better than the Xbox one and the PS4, which it should since it's oriented around holographic imagery through Nintendo VR Glasses, it will be like the superior version of Occulus rift.

...

Nah, if anything it's probably a Xbox one PS4 edition for the Wii U at best. Who knows maybe it's Nintendo's own computer with its own operating system. I mean the New 3DS hasn't been released, and I don't know if the Wii U has been out that long, I guess 2012 was quite a long ago. So it might just be the successor to the Wii U. Sadly I don't have a Wii U, and that's kind of a shame, because I feel as if they didn't make enough games for it personally (but who knows maybe after 3 years it has a huge library that I'm not aware of).

 

[Stuntology]

I just hope my WiiU will have consistent support for at least three more years.

 

[Osprey]

Vague information is vague. I just hope backwards compatibility will be there, along with any processing improvements. Also, a few people have mentioned the possibility of this being a "merged handheld-console." I understand what that's implying, but I'm wondering how that would actually work.

 

[Lt Surge]

If it doesn't release for a couple more years (most likely) than it gives the Wii U a healthy lifespan.

Still, the Wii U releases have been pretty good, and there's still so much more they could do, so this does make me a little sad. I feel like I just got it yesterday!

I agree. I just got my WiiU Xmas 2013 and I've been away from home for a considerable amount of time on business since then, so I haven't had much time to play it.

 

[Bolt Strike]

I don't think it's a good idea to stretch this gen out longer than it needs to. It hasn't been a very profitable one for Nintendo, and if they wait too long to release their next gen console Microsoft and Sony are going to steal the show. An average console lifespan is 5 years, and for the Wii U that would mean ending in 2017. 2017 may seem too soon, but that's only because:

1. Last gen was longer than average (the consoles lasted about 6-8 years)
2. The Wii U's lineup has taken a few years to get going (it launched in 2012 but it didn't get much until 2014).

I really see no reason for them to extend the Wii U's lifespan, it's not going to help them financially and the game lineup feels just about complete, whatever's missing from 8th gen can fill out the next 2 years (in fact, I have very little idea of what they could even do with the 3DS in the next few years, aside from Metroid and Wario there's not much that really feels lacking in the lineup).

 

[jayrachi]

I don't think it's a good idea to stretch this gen out longer than it needs to. It hasn't been a very profitable one for Nintendo, and if they wait too long to release their next gen console Microsoft and Sony are going to steal the show. An average console lifespan is 5 years, and for the Wii U that would mean ending in 2017. 2017 may seem too soon, but that's only because:

1. Last gen was longer than average (the consoles lasted about 6-8 years)
2. The Wii U's lineup has taken a few years to get going (it launched in 2012 but it didn't get much until 2014).

I really see no reason for them to extend the Wii U's lifespan, it's not going to help them financially and the game lineup feels just about complete, whatever's missing from 8th gen can fill out the next 2 years (in fact, I have very little idea of what they could even do with the 3DS in the next few years, aside from Metroid and Wario there's not much that really feels lacking in the lineup).

They are likely looking at their former competitor, Sega, whom usually decided to solve the problem of a failing console by releasing a new one. This backfired, as the consumerbase for Sega had lost trust in their consoles lasting longer than a few years before a new one showed up. Replacing a game console with a new one when it's not as profitable as you'd like is the worst idea you could have logically speaking.

Every generation has lasted 6-8 years, also.

 

[Bolt Strike]

They are likely looking at their former competitor, Sega, whom usually decided to solve the problem of a failing console by releasing a new one. This backfired, as the consumerbase for Sega had lost trust in their consoles lasting longer than a few years before a new one showed up. Replacing a game console with a new one when it's not as profitable as you'd like is the worst idea you could have logically speaking.

Holding the next gen back would be the opposite extreme though, and that would definitely destroy consumer trust, probably even more than releasing a console early. One of the big reasons Nintendo is losing consumer base is because it's been falling behind in terms of console specs, so if they insist on keeping what is perceived as outdated hardware Nintendo is going to feel even less relevant than they are now.

Every generation has lasted 6-8 years, also.

Wrong. Average is roughly 4-6 years.

NES: 6-7 years depending on region
Game Boy: 8-9 years depending on region
SNES: 5-6 for most regions (AU had it for 3 years)
Playstation: 5-6 years depending on region
N64: 5 years
GBC: 3 years
PS2: 6 years
GBA: 4 years
GC: 4-5 years depending on region
Xbox: 4 years
DS: 7 years
PSP: 7 years
Xbox 360: 8 years
Wii: 6 years
PS3: 7 years

The 7th gen consoles last around 6-8 years, but that gen is an outlier compared to 4th, 5th, and 6th gen.

 

[Poke.]

I, to be quite honest, am rather excited for whatever the NX may be.
Maybe Nintendo has finally realized what consumers want!

 

[jayrachi]

Holding the next gen back would be the opposite extreme though, and that would definitely destroy consumer trust, probably even more than releasing a console early. One of the big reasons Nintendo is losing consumer base is because it's been falling behind in terms of console specs, so if they insist on keeping what is perceived as outdated hardware Nintendo is going to feel even less relevant than they are now.

The consumer base for the Wii was a highly casual market that will probably stick with just having the Wii unless it breaks, and even then I don't see much of the Wii audience upgrading their console. Console specs have never meant anything in terms of a console's monetary success. The current consumer base for the Wii U are blatantly just fans of Nintendo. Fans of Nintendo would probably not be happy that their Wii U is outdated almost immediately after they purchased it. I don't see upgrading to a new console even remotely becoming the solution Nintendo needs. What they do need is more software - which they put out, and you know what? Sales dramatically increased over the last year.

Every generation has lasted 6-8 years, also.

Wrong. Average is roughly 4-6 years.

NES: 6-7 years depending on region
Game Boy: 8-9 years depending on region
SNES: 5-6 for most regions (AU had it for 3 years)
Playstation: 5-6 years depending on region
N64: 5 years
GBC: 3 years
PS2: 6 years
GBA: 4 years
GC: 4-5 years depending on region
Xbox: 4 years
DS: 7 years
PSP: 7 years
Xbox 360: 8 years
Wii: 6 years
PS3: 7 years

The 7th gen consoles last around 6-8 years, but that gen is an outlier compared to 4th, 5th, and 6th gen.

I don't know where you're getting those figures but in terms of retail, the N64 lasted from '96 to '03, which is seven years. The GCN lasted from 2001-2007. The SNES was allegedly around from '91-'99 (and even longer in Japan). You also conventiently left out the PS2, which was produced for literally 12 years. Your figure for the Xbox is accurate in Japan and Europe, but in North America it was around for seven years.

I haven't checked all of the consoles you listed and the last gen consoles are still being produced for the most part, so there's no definite figure to even pull up on them.

 

[Bolt Strike]

The consumer base for the Wii was a highly casual market that will probably stick with just having the Wii unless it breaks, and even then I don't see much of the Wii audience upgrading their console.

So clearly they're not a very reliable market.

Console specs have never meant anything in terms of a console's monetary success. The current consumer base for the Wii U are blatantly just fans of Nintendo.

Well that's the thing, "just fans of Nintendo" doesn't amount to much. Microsoft and Sony's audience is at least 4 times as large as Nintendo's, easily.

Fans of Nintendo would probably not be happy that their Wii U is outdated almost immediately after they purchased it.

If Nintendo fans are waiting 2 or 3 years to purchase a Nintendo console, then there's something seriously wrong with what they're offering.

I don't see upgrading to a new console even remotely becoming the solution Nintendo needs. What they do need is more software - which they put out, and you know what? Sales dramatically increased over the last year.

You clearly have no idea how sales works. Games can only take you so far, if you don't have desirable hardware to play it on, then people aren't going to care about the software. Wii U already has a good variety of IPs, including their best selling IPs, and it hasn't helped them much. Meanwhile, the Wii games sold around twice as much as their current gen counterparts and PS4 and Xbox One despite the fact that the Wii U has been on the market for more than a year and has better software. So clearly more games isn't going to help them. In fact I don't think it's a stretch to say that there's nothing that can save the Wii U.

I don't know where you're getting those figures but in terms of retail, the N64 lasted from '96 to '03, which is seven years. The GCN lasted from 2001-2007. The SNES was allegedly around from '91-'99 (and even longer in Japan). You also conventiently left out the PS2, which was produced for literally 12 years. Your figure for the Xbox is accurate in Japan and Europe, but in North America it was around for seven years.

I haven't checked all of the consoles you listed and the last gen consoles are still being produced for the most part, so there's no definite figure to even pull up on them.

That's because I'm not looking at the discontinuation date, I'm looking at the successor's release date. For the N64, for example, I was looking at the period from the N64's release date (1996-1997 depending on region) to the Gamecube's release date (2001-2002 depending on region). The discontinuation date isn't relevant to the discussion because we're concerned with when the Wii U's successor is releasing, not when they stop selling Wii U's.

 

[jayrachi]

So clearly they're not a very reliable market.

Well that's the thing, "just fans of Nintendo" doesn't amount to much. Microsoft and Sony's audience is at least 4 times as large as Nintendo's, easily.

And I agree there - I think Nintendo needs to find a way to bring in more fans. But a new console is likely not that answer.

If Nintendo fans are waiting 2 or 3 years to purchase a Nintendo console, then there's something seriously wrong with what they're offering.

It's not that they are waiting a few years, it's that the consumers that Nintendo currently has would probably want to be able to be confident that if Nintendo releases a console it won't be abandoned soon after.

You clearly have no idea how sales works. Games can only take you so far, if you don't have desirable hardware to play it on, then people aren't going to care about the software. Wii U already has a good variety of IPs, including their best selling IPs, and it hasn't helped them much. Meanwhile, the Wii games sold around twice as much as their current gen counterparts and PS4 and Xbox One despite the fact that the Wii U has been on the market for more than a year and has better software. So clearly more games isn't going to help them. In fact I don't think it's a stretch to say that there's nothing that can save the Wii U.

The only reason the PS2 was as successful as it was was because of its ability to play DVDs. This made it desirable to everyone and popularised DVD players. The Wii had the gimmick of allowing people to exercise in the comfort of their own home. Yeah, hardware that appeals to people will drive sales up, typically with a certain gimmick. The Wii U's gimmick didn't work out this time, but abandoning it would only guarantee that they would never receive profit from it, ever. Instead, they've stuck with the Wii U and have managed to make some kind of small profit rather than taking a loss and dealing with it. Software is all the Wii U has got to keep its sales up since its hardware gimmick failed to reel customers in.

That's because I'm not looking at the discontinuation date, I'm looking at the successor's release date. For the N64, for example, I was looking at the period from the N64's release date (1996-1997 depending on region) to the Gamecube's release date (2001-2002 depending on region). The discontinuation date isn't relevant to the discussion because we're concerned with when the Wii U's successor is releasing, not when they stop selling Wii U's.

That is an arbitrary method to stop a generation. If you want to be technical, the sixth generation of consoles lasted from 1998 until 2013. A company is still profiting off of a console that is being produced and the generation is still by all means active.

 

[Bolt Strike]

And I agree there - I think Nintendo needs to find a way to bring in more fans. But a new console is likely not that answer.

A new console is by far the best answer. The quickest way to bring in more fans is to tailor the hardware to those markets.

It's not that they are waiting a few years, it's that the consumers that Nintendo currently has would probably want to be able to be confident that if Nintendo releases a console it won't be abandoned soon after.

Releasing a new generation in 2017 isn't going to destroy consumer confidence. By that point the Wii U will have run its course, the fans will have had it long enough to get enjoyment out of it and it will have accumulated a satisfying lineup. The people crying "too soon" have simply been spoiled by a longer than average 7th gen and were unsatisfied with the Wii U's early lineup (which they can fix with the new OS).

The only reason the PS2 was as successful as it was was because of its ability to play DVDs. This made it desirable to everyone and popularised DVD players. The Wii had the gimmick of allowing people to exercise in the comfort of their own home. Yeah, hardware that appeals to people will drive sales up, typically with a certain gimmick. The Wii U's gimmick didn't work out this time, but abandoning it would only guarantee that they would never receive profit from it, ever. Instead, they've stuck with the Wii U and have managed to make some kind of small profit rather than taking a loss and dealing with it. Software is all the Wii U has got to keep its sales up since its hardware gimmick failed to reel customers in.

Even the software sales aren't that great. I think at this point they're just going to have to cut their losses, if they stick with it too long Microsoft and Sony are going to jump on the chance to completely bury Nintendo with hardware that puts them to shame. Things are going to get a lot worse for Nintendo if they let PS5 and the new Xbox come out first, Nintendo will have a much harder time garnering attention if they fall two generations' worth of hardware behind.

That is an arbitrary method to stop a generation. If you want to be technical, the sixth generation of consoles lasted from 1998 until 2013. A company is still profiting off of a console that is being produced and the generation is still by all means active.

Well if you're going to look at it that way then maybe Wii U will stick around until 2018 or maybe even 2019, but most people don't pay attention to discontinuation dates because they're more concerned with the new console at that point. And no, it's not arbitrary. Developers release a new console when the current console limits what they can do. And the Wii U is definitely starting to reach its limits.

 

[jayrachi]

A new console is by far the best answer. The quickest way to bring in more fans is to tailor the hardware to those markets.

History has shown the opposite happen, but if you have an example of this working then be my guest and present it.

Releasing a new generation in 2017 isn't going to destroy consumer confidence. By that point the Wii U will have run its course, the fans will have had it long enough to get enjoyment out of it and it will have accumulated a satisfying lineup. The people crying "too soon" have simply been spoiled by a longer than average 7th gen and were unsatisfied with the Wii U's early lineup (which they can fix with the new OS).

The seventh generation has not been longer than any other generation, though.

Even the software sales aren't that great. I think at this point they're just going to have to cut their losses, if they stick with it too long Microsoft and Sony are going to jump on the chance to completely bury Nintendo with hardware that puts them to shame. Things are going to get a lot worse for Nintendo if they let PS5 and the new Xbox come out first, Nintendo will have a much harder time garnering attention if they fall two generations' worth of hardware behind.

I doubt Sony or Microsoft will have a new hardware out any time soon around 2017 for the same reasons Nintendo probably won't. Not to mention the PS4 and Xbone have been out for only a little more than a year at this point.

Well if you're going to look at it that way then maybe Wii U will stick around until 2018 or maybe even 2019, but most people don't pay attention to discontinuation dates because they're more concerned with the new console at that point. And no, it's not arbitrary. Developers release a new console when the current console limits what they can do. And the Wii U is definitely starting to reach its limits.

Most discontinuation dates occur shortly after the next console generation starts. The only reason the 6th gen lasted until 2013 is because of the PS2, which was still relevant enough to warrant production well into the 7th gen. There are defined dates for generation beginnings and ends already. So yeah, your self-defined dates are fairly arbitrary.

 

[Bolt Strike]

The seventh generation has not been longer than any other generation, though.

Only when you look at it by your definition. For the rest of the industry, generations end when the successor is released.

I doubt Sony or Microsoft will have a new hardware out any time soon around 2017 for the same reasons Nintendo probably won't. Not to mention the PS4 and Xbone have been out for only a little more than a year at this point.

Not in 2017, no. But if Nintendo waits until 2018 and 2019, then they're definitely risking Microsoft and Sony jumping ahead of them.

There are defined dates for generation beginnings and ends already. So yeah, your self-defined dates are fairly arbitrary.

You're not even making sense anymore. Both the successor's release date and the discontinuation dates ARE defined dates, there's nothing arbitrary about either of them. You're simply looking at another date. And remember what the argument is about, we're discussing the likelihood of a 9th gen Nintendo console releasing in 2017. Who cares when the Wii U is discontinued, that's not relevant. If anyone's being arbitrary, it's you.

 

[jayrachi]

Only when you look at it by your definition. For the rest of the industry, generations end when the successor is released.

I've never seen anyone define a generation's length by this. Ever.

You're not even making sense anymore. Both the successor's release date and the discontinuation dates ARE defined dates, there's nothing arbitrary about either of them. You're simply looking at another date. And remember what the argument is about, we're discussing the likelihood of a 9th gen Nintendo console releasing in 2017. Who cares when the Wii U is discontinued, that's not relevant. If anyone's being arbitrary, it's you.

You had brought up that the 7th generation of consoles is somehow longer than others. It is not, and that is my point with that post.

As far as whether or not the NX is going to be a new, 9th Gen console, I'll just reiterate that I've learnt not to guess what Nintendo is going to do.

 

[Bolt Strike]

I've never seen anyone define a generation's length by this. Ever.

You're not even making sense anymore. Both the successor's release date and the discontinuation dates ARE defined dates, there's nothing arbitrary about either of them. You're simply looking at another date. And remember what the argument is about, we're discussing the likelihood of a 9th gen Nintendo console releasing in 2017. Who cares when the Wii U is discontinued, that's not relevant. If anyone's being arbitrary, it's you.

You had brought up that the 7th generation of consoles is somehow longer than others. It is not, and that is my point with that post.

As far as whether or not the NX is going to be a new, 9th Gen console, I'll just reiterate that I've learnt not to guess what Nintendo is going to do.

Really, because I've never seen anyone define a generation length your way. IDK who would want to because it's a lot more complex and less intuitive. People don't generally like to have to keep track of multiple periods of time going on simultaneously, it's much simpler to just have one end when the other begins. And between the successor release date and the discontinuation date guess which one people are going to remember, the one that gets all of the hype and promotion or the one that happens quietly as the older system dies slowly? I don't really see the point in keeping track of discontinuation dates, they're not really significant events.

At any rate, 2017 definitely feels like the right time for Nintendo to roll out 9th gen, they shouldn't wait any longer than that.

 

[Fairy Ice Ricky]

Wait, I thought a new gen was defined based on when a new console comes out, plus or minus some time due to transition? (I'm not worry about when an older generation ends, just when a new one starts.) I remember it taking some time for the media to stop calling the PS4/XBOne "next gen" and start calling it "current gen", which means for most people the 8th gen started late 2013/early 2014. (I know technically it started in late 2012 with the Wii U, but due to its release--and especially its specs--it counts-but-doesn't.)

Either way, I understand the fears of Nintendo making a new console too soon, but I also think that's more or less Nintendo's fault for not releasing headline-grabbing Wii U games until mid-2014, which meant the console wasn't really on people's minds until a bit before that point. The Wii U has been out since late 2012, so a home console release from Nintendo in 2017 seems totally plausible and on track with general video game console trends. But, depending on Nintendo's probable portable release and the success of its mobile & QOL plans, I can see Nintendo getting away with releasing a home console in 2018.

It also depends on how interconnected Nintendo's portable & home console divisions are for the next generation, assuming the hybrid rumors are true. Will it be like the Wii U with its GamePad, with the "GamePad" having more autonomy? If so, the release of the portable console and the home console will have to be close together, if not simultaneous. If it's something like the PS Vita and the PS4, where the two systems are technically independent but have a lot of interconnected features when used together, then Nintendo can do a more staggered release for its portable and home console systems.

Regardless, these are (in)tense times to be a Nintendo fan, that's for sure.