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Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl Mafia - Day 4: Feeding the Flames of Firey Passion

Good morning folks.
There is one thing that immediately made me feel uncomfortable.
There are only two people who died tonight so here are my guesses:
1. Mafia didn't kill anyone last night (unlikely, especially considering that the chances of a hostile indep around are kinda high)
2. Mafia tried to kill someone but the target was bulletproof/doctored/saved some other way
3. If getting killed by a vig get's announced the same way to us as a mafia night kill (I honestly don't know about that) then there are chances that Jinjo was either the only vig after all or (but I don't know if that's possible/likely) mafia has a vig too.
I want to make clear that I jumped the gun at first and wanted to blame Space as soon as I saw that, but since there could be other reasons (from target protection to me just being wrong becuase I'm missing something) which are from kinda unlikely to realistic possibilities I wouldn't feel to great by blaming Space already. If something I pointed out was wrong (in example because there is a game rule that contradicts that) don't hesitate to point that out.
For now I'll keep an eye out for Space though...
 
I want to make clear that I jumped the gun at first and wanted to blame Space as soon as I saw that, but since there could be other reasons (from target protection to me just being wrong becuase I'm missing something) which are from kinda unlikely to realistic possibilities I wouldn't feel to great by blaming Space already. If something I pointed out was wrong (in example because there is a game rule that contradicts that) don't hesitate to point that out.
For now I'll keep an eye out for Space though...
In this post, Space claimed that they shot Jinjo
Yeah, I shot Jinjo. this... is not what I expected -- sorry Jinjo.

I can see two possibilities here:
1) Space is telling the truth and they are actually the Vig and shot Jinjo N1

2) Space is part of the Mafia and the Mafia chose to kill Jinjo in order to clear Space as the Vig

In any case, Space is likely not the Arsonist (there is a very small chance they could still be, but we can let it pass for now)
 
2) Space is part of the Mafia and the Mafia chose to kill Jinjo in order to clear Space as the Vig
if that was the case then Jinjo is the one who would've shot HD and I don't really see why she'd do that over some of her other reads

was she even scumreading HD?
 
also did anyone get doused last night? if it notifies the person then it would be better for them to say in-thread so Dawning can target them
 
if that was the case then Jinjo is the one who would've shot HD and I don't really see why she'd do that over some of her other reads

was she even scumreading HD?
I think Jinjo had expressed their suspicions against HD but even I doubt they would choose to shoot HD rather than someone who they found more suspicious.

Could it be that Jinjo and Space targeted each other and Mafia killed HD? But then Jinjo wasting a shot on a claimed Bulletproof wouldn't make sense. This is a bit confusing.
 
very rushed day today but I'll definitely try catching up and making some better theories tomorrow

also just a thought but what about the possibility of arsonist being able to douse and ignite on the same night?

in any case as things are right now we have to be wary of space ever moving again (since they're supposedly out of shots)

Could it be that Jinjo and Space targeted each other and Mafia killed HD?
@Space do you still have your bulletproof?
 
very rushed day today but I'll definitely try catching up and making some better theories tomorrow

also just a thought but what about the possibility of arsonist being able to douse and ignite on the same night?

in any case as things are right now we have to be wary of space ever moving again (since they're supposedly out of shots)


@Space do you still have your bulletproof?
If that was the case adding a firefighter appears kinda strange (unless there are more than one) and even though the arsonist being (most likely) independent it would make the role kinda op.
 
Ooops, almost forgot
also did anyone get doused last night? if it notifies the person then it would be better for them to say in-thread so Dawning can target them
Highly unlikely if you ask me because it would make the arsonist a role that has the lowest "defense" (unless there is an alignment) and nearly completely remove the "offense" (unless there is no firefighter in the game) so this would be extremely unbalanced.
However, if someone actually got notified after all it could be considered as a proof for an alignment so let us know asap please.
 
If that was the case adding a firefighter appears kinda strange (unless there are more than one) and even though the arsonist being (most likely) independent it would make the role kinda op.
If that was the case adding a firefighter appears kinda strange (unless there are more than one) and even though the arsonist being (most likely) independent it would make the role kinda op.
I mean it would just mean it can also be used as a serial killer, it shouldn't affect the importance of the firefighter nor make it too OP.

Assuming the firefighter action would go between the dousing and the ignition it would just be sort of like a specialized doctor for these nights.
It also doesn't really make the arsonist much more OP because part of the danger in the role is how it causes uncertainty/paranoia on how many people might die out of nowhere. If they just keep dousing and igniting we're able to keep track of it plus the PoE reduces in a way that doesn't threat the game ending abruptly.

Ooops, almost forgot

Highly unlikely if you ask me because it would make the arsonist a role that has the lowest "defense" (unless there is an alignment) and nearly completely remove the "offense" (unless there is no firefighter in the game) so this would be extremely unbalanced.
However, if someone actually got notified after all it could be considered as a proof for an alignment so let us know asap please.
Sorry, what you mean by defense and offense?
 
I mean it would just mean it can also be used as a serial killer, it shouldn't affect the importance of the firefighter nor make it too OP.

Assuming the firefighter action would go between the dousing and the ignition it would just be sort of like a specialized doctor for these nights.
It also doesn't really make the arsonist much more OP because part of the danger in the role is how it causes uncertainty/paranoia on how many people might die out of nowhere. If they just keep dousing and igniting we're able to keep track of it plus the PoE reduces in a way that doesn't threat the game ending abruptly.


Sorry, what you mean by defense and offense?
Does being bulletproof protect from SK kills (honest question)? If yes, then you're right, but if not the arsonist could technically kill everyone except for the firefighter without further difficulties (that's why I thought it could be kinda op)


By defense I mean that the arsonist is on it's own/everyone wants to get rid of them. Let's take the stating setup as an example, 11 people, 1 being the arsonist, that makes around 90% of the players being hostile towards the arsonist (unless the arsonist is part of a fraction of course), that's what I meant with "defense" (appeared to be a fitting term to me in that moment).
By offense I mean the ability of the arsonist to kill other players. If the doused people would be noticed, they could just go Yo guys I got doused!, the firefighter removes the dousing the next night and the process repeats forever (unless there is no firefighter or the firefighter has a x-shot limitation), meaning the arsonist would only expose their presence (if the firefighter hasn't already) and basically wait to get lynched.
 
Does being bulletproof protect from SK kills (honest question)? If yes, then you're right, but if not the arsonist could technically kill everyone except for the firefighter without further difficulties (that's why I thought it could be kinda op)
that's a pretty good point

firefighters usually bypass doctor and bulletproof while SK's often don't, so I guess you're right about it

surprised you know that
 
that's a pretty good point

firefighters usually bypass doctor and bulletproof while SK's often don't, so I guess you're right about it

surprised you know that
Would be kinda foolish to play my first game without checking how the roles that were claimed work, it's kinda hard to keep the overview as it is so I'm working with my phone and my notebook at the same time. I'm taking this all rather serious, I studied the rules and guides before even asking TheCapsFan if I could join although being a beginner. No point in participating if I'm just hindering.
 
By offense I mean the ability of the arsonist to kill other players. If the doused people would be noticed, they could just go Yo guys I got doused!, the firefighter removes the dousing the next night and the process repeats forever (unless there is no firefighter or the firefighter has a x-shot limitation), meaning the arsonist would only expose their presence (if the firefighter hasn't already) and basically wait to get lynched.
This does assume that being doused notifies the player, which isn't necessarily the case, and given that nobody's claimed to have been doused, I'm probably leaning towards it not being?

That said; I do agree with the sentiment its unlikely the arsonist can douse and ignite on the same night, unless the have a limited number of ignitions, because then they just become an SK the requires a specialized protective role that can out their existence. In which case just having an SK i feel like would probably make more sense, except for probably flavourwise but even then most characters being spun as a kill everyone Arsonist shouldn't have that much issue being spun as an SK.


was she even scumreading HD?
Jinjo said multiple times she thought Human might be the Arsonist, and I think he's the only suspect she ever mentioned for an Arsonist?


If getting killed by a vig get's announced the same way to us as a mafia night kill
It is usually.

mafia has a vig too
This is highly, highly unlikely. Mafia vigs tip the balance incredibly hard in favor of scum unless the town has an absolutely absurd amount of protection.
 
For this reason, I said I'm getting good vibes from HD but I won't trust them completely as they are a very expert player.

As far as I'm aware, this is the only post that showed any direct suspicion towards Human?

2) Space is part of the Mafia and the Mafia chose to kill Jinjo in order to clear Space as the Vig

Why would I go to the trouble of counterclaiming Jinjo (on Day 1) and putting attention on myself just to kill Jinjo in the night?

also did anyone get doused last night? if it notifies the person then it would be better for them to say in-thread so Dawning can target them

Does anyone remember in the Xenoblade (2?) mafia when people got poisoned or zombified whatever it was? Did the target get notified?

Could it be that Jinjo and Space targeted each other and Mafia killed HD? But then Jinjo wasting a shot on a claimed Bulletproof wouldn't make sense. This is a bit confusing.

Dawning is probably right that Jinjo and mafia targeted Human. It's the most likely conclusion with what little we know

@Space do you still have your bulletproof?

I'm going to assume I do, since I didn't get notified of losing it. Maybe I won't know if it's gone, but I don't think mafia or Jinjo would have wasted a shot on me
 
In alphabetical order:

DawningWinds They were quite open about their position from the beginning, there's no reason to have doubt about them being Town. But of course it's good to keep the eyes open just in case.

ExLight has been contributing a lot to the discussion, I don't think I can say for sure which his side is though, for now I'm inclined to say Town.

Midorikawa For some reason I feel like she's watching from a distance, blending in with the crowd, following my intuition I'll leave her as a maybe.

Pika_pika42 has not been very active, but we already know that he's busy in real life, in a few days it could be the case with me. Leaving that aside, I have noticed that while his posts are very good at analyzing what's going on, he always tries to keep his distance, being discreet and attracting as little attention as possible, I'll leave him as a maybe.

Raven has been contributing to the discussion and I've noticed lately that he feels more comfortable, trying to clarify all the doubts he has openly. I'll keep my eyes open but for now he leans more towards to the town side. I identify with how he feels, especially about the language, English isn't my native tongue either.

I think their shot proves that Space is Town almost for sure.
 
Midorikawa For some reason I feel like she's watching from a distance, blending in with the crowd, following my intuition I'll leave her as a maybe.
Watching from a distance yes because I’m at work like 90% of the time so it’s hard to reply.

Blending in no. I never blend even as mafia. I’m loud. Just wait till I have time and start doing ISOs.

Anyways on an important note.

I WAS ROLEBLOCKED.

I targeted Raven if anyone is wondering.
 
I WAS ROLEBLOCKED.
Kinda inclined to assume it would've been a Mafia roleblocker here since not really anyone's been scumreading you? Unless Raven's like a commuter,

Also, knew I was forgetting to mention something.
My role was redirected; my original target was Space. I'll see if anyone claims the redirection before outing who I was redirected to.
 
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