Pokémon Will Probably Top All-Time Best-Sellers List in 2012

[StarBP]

Pokémon, the fastest-selling video game in the world (What, you thought Mario was the best-selling video game in the world? You are right! We'll get to that later.), will become the #1 all-time best-selling video game franchise in the world sometime in 2011 or 2012. I used calculations that were rounded to increase Mario's sales and decrease Pokémon's sales. Here are the statistics.

Mario: 200 million copies sold from 1982 to 2007 inclusive (I rounded the years to make Mario seem faster and Pokémon pokier... er, slower).
Pokémon: 175 million copies sold from 1996 to 2008 inclusive.

Mario: 7.7 million copies per year (about one game every 4 seconds; this stat was not used but it is interesting)
Pokémon: 13.4 million copies per year (about one game every 2 1/2 seconds)

Year Mario Pokémon Difference (millions, end of year predicted)

2007 200.0 175.0 25.0 Mario
2008 207.7 188.4 19.3 Mario
2009 215.4 201.8 13.6 Mario
2010 223.1 215.2 7.9 Mario
2011 230.8 228.6 2.2 Mario
2012 238.5 242.0 3.5 Pokémon

More realistic estimates show that the Pokémon 15th Anniversary Year of Celebration will end with Pokémon claiming its spot as #1 game franchise of all time, a spot it will keep for years to come. Of course, Nintendo won't care, except for all the publicity it will recieve, because they are just beating themselves.

Because video game sales rarely follow a straight line, Pokémon will probably beat Mario when Generation V comes out.

 

[Amewsment]

Hmm I would be careful with predictions of this nature, because you cannot simply observe past selling rates and project it into the future. Purchasing behaviour is often hard to predict especially over this kind of time span, but not only is that hard to predict you must also keep in mind unforeseeable events in the future that could affect the purchasing behaviour of gamers in regards to the Pokémon franchise.
However I think you could be right with your observation especially regarding the general trend, although the figures may end up being very different. We shall see...

 

[StarBP]

Hmm I would be careful with predictions of this nature, because you cannot simply observe past selling rates and project it into the future. Purchasing behaviour is often hard to predict especially over this kind of time span, but not only is that hard to predict you must also keep in mind unforeseeable events in the future that could affect the purchasing behaviour of gamers in regards to the Pokémon franchise.
However I think you could be right with your observation especially regarding the general trend, although the figures may end up being very different. We shall see...

I know. Both game series are still doing well. Any attempts to say that either of them has suffered from the "fad factor" will be quickly met with the sales figures for New Super Mario Bros., the 9th best-selling game of all time, the 2nd best-selling Mario game of all time, and the 6th best-selling Nintendo game of all time; and Pokémon Diamond and Pearl (listed as one game in terms of sales on Wikipedia), the 6th best-selling game of all time, the 2nd best-selling Pokémon game of all time, and the 4th best-selling Nintendo game of all time. Also, what you said about the figures rarely being completely linear is absolutely correct. That is why I mentioned Generation V, not just 2012, as the probable time of the beginning of Pokémon's reign at the end of my post.
Note: All sales figures listed here are from this Wikipedia article, and they exclude bundled packages, which are listed in another section of the same article.

 

[BlueEew]

I agree. I also think that Pokemon will bethe top selling game from Nintendo and the whole world. However that all depends on if they continue making more Pokemon games.

 

[Nick-kun]

It really depends if Nintendo is just milking it (like Activision and Guitar Hero) or they will still be putting good quality gaming into it. I think Generation V will be a factor because it could be a flop all together.

 

[XD375]

The thing with Pokémon is that the next generation can't be any more of a flop than the last, as it's probably going to be nearly the same thing as the last, yet it'll still skyrocket in sales.

 

[Lilac Hill]

Do these calculations include spin-offs?

 

[StarBP]

Do these calculations include spin-offs?

They include every game in the series, not just the main line; as my original statistics that the calculations are based on include every game.

 

[Doctor Oak]

The fact the franchise has been so close to Mario's lifetime totals, despite only existing for half the period of time that Mario has, was always pretty indicative that Pokemon would eventually overtake Mario to be #1.

The question would always be when - and the most logical answer to that is probably within the next Generation. Not exactly ground-breaking predictions, but there ya go. It'd be nice for it to time-in with the 15th Anniversary celebrations though.

 

[bell02+]

This is why I've always wished Nintendo put the same effort into the series as they do with Mario, Zelda, or Metroid. I can understand why they do what they do (Like Ambrella making games for the preschool market, and Genius Sonority covering the spin-off RPGs)

However I don't think that the "put this aside for them" strategy works. Pokemon shouldn't be defined by it's genre, it should be defined by it's characters like the way Nintendo treats all their other series.

Most of the spin off games aren't bad... just average... with the best dating back in the N64 days. But still why not more creative ideas and then efforts to keep their quality control in check. Pokemon Racing in pokemon dash was a great idea, but I doubt it received the same quality check as a title like Wario Ware or even Donkey Kong Bongo Blast. (or what ever that racer was called) It's just Pokemon fans, like all others, like good games.

 

[StarBP]

This is why I've always wished Nintendo put the same effort into the series as they do with Mario, Zelda, or Metroid. I can understand why they do what they do (Like Ambrella making games for the preschool market, and Genius Sonority covering the spin-off RPGs)

However I don't think that the "put this aside for them" strategy works. Pokemon shouldn't be defined by it's genre, it should be defined by it's characters like the way Nintendo treats all their other series.

Most of the spin off games aren't bad... just average... with the best dating back in the N64 days. But still why not more creative ideas and then efforts to keep their quality control in check. Pokemon Racing in pokemon dash was a great idea, but I doubt it received the same quality check as a title like Wario Ware or even Donkey Kong Bongo Blast. (or what ever that racer was called) It's just Pokemon fans, like all others, like good games.

It's called Donkey Kong Barrel Blast.

 

[Silktree]

and Pokémon Diamond and Pearl (listed as one game in terms of sales on Wikipedia), the 6th best-selling game of all time, the 2nd best-selling Pokémon game of all time, and the 4th best-selling Nintendo game of all time.

Note: All sales figures listed here are from this Wikipedia article, and they exclude bundled packages, which are listed in another section of the same article.

The Wikipedia page is terribly inaccurate, at least as far as Red/Green/Blue, Gold/Silver and Ruby/Sapphire are concerned. It is almost as though someone went out of their way to over-glorify Diamond and Pearl.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Red, Green and Blue: 31.38 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Gold and Silver: 23.11 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Ruby and Sapphire: 15.40 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Diamond and Pearl: 15.00 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Yellow: 14.64 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon FireRed and LeafGreen: 10.49 million units.

It is ridiculous to claim that Diamond and Pearl are the second most successful titles. If that were true, there would necessarily be a fad right now, which there is not. However, it is notable that instead of undergoing a sharp decline compared to the previous generation, the new generation has managed to maintain the same level of success.

That said, if this generation turned out not to be accommodating Gold and Silver remakes, the above would not be strictly true. Thanks to FireRed and LeafGreen, Generation III was able to be on par with Generation II in terms of overall sales, despite Gold and Silver's usurping Ruby and Sapphire by a long way. Seeing as Diamond and Pearl are not more successful than Ruby and Sapphire (nor is Platinum likely to have greater success than Emerald did), Generation IV has no excuse to dispense with the supplementary aid provided by remakes.

Simply put, Gold and Silver remakes are necessary for the franchise to surpass Mario within the upcoming five years.

 

[StarBP]

The Wikipedia page is terribly inaccurate, at least as far as Red/Green/Blue, Gold/Silver and Ruby/Sapphire are concerned. It is almost as though someone went out of their way to over-glorify Diamond and Pearl.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Red, Green and Blue: 31.38 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Gold and Silver: 23.11 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Ruby and Sapphire: 15.40 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Diamond and Pearl: 15.00 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon Yellow: 14.64 million units.

Worldwide sales for Pokémon FireRed and LeafGreen: 10.49 million units.

It is ridiculous to claim that Diamond and Pearl are the second most successful titles. If that were true, there would necessarily be a fad right now, which there is not. However, it is notable that instead of undergoing a sharp decline compared to the previous generation, the new generation has managed to maintain the same level of success.

That said, if this generation turned out not to be accommodating Gold and Silver remakes, the above would not be strictly true. Thanks to FireRed and LeafGreen, Generation III was able to be on par with Generation II in terms of overall sales, despite Gold and Silver's usurping Ruby and Sapphire by a long way. Seeing as Diamond and Pearl are not more successful than Ruby and Sapphire (nor is Platinum likely to have greater success than Emerald did), Generation IV has no excuse to dispense with the supplementary aid provided by remakes.

Simply put, Gold and Silver remakes are necessary for the franchise to surpass Mario within the upcoming five years.

I agree partially. The Pokémon stats given in Wikipedia add up to only 115 million copies, whereas the Game Chartz stats add up to 160 million. However, though I did not take the time to add up every Mario game's stats on Wikipedia (there are lots more Mario games than Pokémon games), Game Chartz gives a figure of 320 million for Mario games. Also, Game Chartz says that they count how many games were shipped, not sold. The number of games sold is the industry standard when talking about video game sales. The number of games shipped is usually only mentioned when sales stats are not available.

 

[Silktree]

Without getting into a rigorous analysis of which count is more accurate or relevant, it it suffice to say that Wikipedia lacks the European sales for a lot of games. Among those games are Red/Blue, Gold/Silver and Ruby/Sapphire, whereas Diamond/Pearl and FireRed/LeafGreen's calculations do take Europe into account.

Furthermore, if we take it as a given that the current overall sales stand at 175 million units (based on a recent Nintendo report), it is clear which web site gives us a better picture of the numbers involved.