PS3 launch likely delayed until 2007

[Kadabra]

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20050804-5170.html

Sony PS3 may debut in 2007, if Xbox 360 lags

8/4/2005 12:01:08 PM, by Ken "Caesar" Fisher

Analysts at Wedbush Morgan Securities are saying that Sony could delay the PS3 into 2007, if the right market conditions allow for them to do so. What constitutes the right conditions? First, Sony needs to score a direct hit on the Xbox 360 launch by making the PS2 more attractive.

We believe that the company will attempt to disrupt the Xbox 360 launch with a price cut, and as a result may succeed in diverting attention away from the higher priced next generation console. We expect the Microsoft to attempt to engineer the Xbox 360 to be compatible with the current generation Xbox, and as a result, believe that Microsoft will maintain $149 pricing for its money-losing hardware.

The likely scenario is that when the Xbox 360 launches, the PS2 will drop to $99, and Sony will shout it from the rooftops. The pricing of the original Xbox may get a little more dicey, however, as the company tries to find a way to bundle more value into the $149 price tag, but I certainly don't expect to see an Xbox at $99 this holiday season, no matter what Sony does. So how do we get to 2007?

We expect Sony to defer a decision regarding PS3 launch until it is able to assess the likely success of the Xbox 360, and anticipate that Sony will make its decision shortly after the Xbox 360 launch. We do not expect the PS3 until mid 2006, at the earliest, and should Microsoft fail to garner sufficient software support to gain an insurmountable lead, we think that there is a possibility that the PS3 launch will slip into early 2007.

Note what's being said here. The issue isn't merely whether or not the Xbox 360 sells well, although this is Gamespot's reading. If Microsoft sells Xbox 360 units at breakneck speed, it doesn't matter. They're losing money on every one of those consoles. No, Wedbush sees a potential for Microsoft launching without adequate title support. All the console sales in the world can't make a popular platform, and a weak title list at launch can suck the air out of a room in a hurry.

Hello? It's Nintendo on Line 1. They said they want their poor DS launch back.

Whether or not a $99 PS2 is really going to make much of a dent in the Xbox 360 launch is a matter of opinion at this point, but I'll share mine: it won't. As for title support, a number have been announced, but it's not exactly clear how many will be on shelves come December. Is there real cause for concern?

Yes, there is. Microsoft's XNA is apparently no cakewalk, and Sony's solution will entail a steep learning curve, too, as Hannibal has noted. Indeed, a few weeks ago Gabe Newell bemoaned both consoles, saying "Your existing code, you can just throw it away."

"Most of the problems of getting these systems running on these multicore processors are not solved. They are doctoral theses, not known implementation problems. So it's not even clear that over the lifespan of these next generation systems that they will be solved problems. The amount of time it takes to get a good multicore engine running, the Xbox 360 might not even be on the market any longer. That should scare the crap out of everybody."

So, the issue isn't just title availability, but quality.

This brings us to why would Sony want to wait? There are three reasons. First of all, Sony is in the same boat as Microsoft as regards the difficulty of developing games for these next-gen consoles. More time should translate into higher quality games, and if Sony can afford to wait, then they should. Second, at $99, the PS2 itself could be sold for profit. Consoles are usually sold at a loss, and that money is made back (and then some, hopefully) by game sales. So, Sony could sit back and collect profits while building up a cache of PS3s for a later launch. This brings us to the third reason. Sony was embarrassed last year when they couldn't meet demand for the PS2. If Sony debuts the PS3 next year only to see more supply and demand problems, they'll lose customers to Microsoft.

I think that the wait is a good idea, as the PS2 is (and will remain for quite some time) the dominant platform. They'll release the PS3 when a) the PS2 will start being taken over by the 360, and b) when a better engine for the PS3 will be completed.

Hell, at $99 USD...even I might get one. And with the huge number of excellent titles available, I wouldn't be in a hurry to get a XBOX 360. :-D

I know someone who is a professional in this field, and he pretty much said the same thing as I...

Creating a good base for the new systems is going to be the single largest hurdle when moving the next generation. Both the Cell and the symmetrical processor in the 360 are going to be absolute bitches to develop for. The lack of on-the-fly instruction reordering and terrible speculative execution functionality means that developers are going to have to put a massive amount of work into just getting simple things to run acceptably on either of the platforms. We're literally going back to the 386 days of writing pure assembly in order to get decent performance out of them.

Apparently, things are so bad that even a cheap Celeron will easily outperform the Cell when running your average general purpose, branch heavy code. Can you guess what two of the most branch heavy bits of code are going to be in the next generation? The very things that Microsoft and Sony have been pushing so hard: AI and physics. Both require tonnes of branches, and will also require a huge number of memory reads, which happens to be the kind of thing that instruction reordering will speed up tremendously.

Couple the above with the fact that most developers lack appropriate experience in developing multi-threaded applications, and you've got a pretty good recipe for slow development.

I'd hazard a guess that Sony may be facing delay not because of Microsoft, or because they're working on something, but because the developers working on first generation titles are taking much longer and encountering many more problems than Sony anticipated. Microsoft was getting dual core development boxes (in the form of heavily modified Apple G5s) to developers as early as possible, long before Sony started distributing Cell development boxes. As such, 360 launch titles may already have many of their kinks worked out and the teams working on 360 exclusives have had a chance to gain much more experience than the third party Sony developers, who've only received their systems in the past few months.

 

[Archaic]

Heck, at that low a price, even I might consider buying a PS2. I'd want it modded to play import games, of course (Well, I'll be living in Japan from 2007 onwards, so they'll hardly be imports for me for much longer), but while I've been a die-hard Nintendo fan for years, there's lots of great games that were only released for Playstation that I'd like to try, now that they're all in the bargain bin.

 

[bell02+]

Yeah, I think I read that befoe (but I'll read it again anyways)

I find it hard to believe developers will have enough time to make games for it to make it out next year, however at the same time I think xbox360 will do really well this year. I doubt people will wait due to just when it launches... but you never know because KH2 and Zelda may kill it's launch hype, and FFXII to hold it off in '06.

The only thing that has me wondering is if Nintendo releases in 2006 and PS3 in 2007, will sony copy the nintendo controller like Nintendo feared (however, if the technology is made exclusive before or at the launch it'd be different).

 

[Doctor Oak]

It's highly unlikely Sony will copy the Ninty controller. For some weird-assed reason they like those boomerang things.

If Nintendo played the patents game right, Sony'd be in the boiling pot if they tried to copy the 'innovation' behind whatever the heck makes this controller so special. (Dual Shock re-run anyone?)

Delaying could be a good idea. The way I see it, people are going to go for Playstation anyway because of the name. Most people don't even care about the games, more the image of having the console. Those are the people that make the industry worse, but they're also the ones that buy the most machines.

Not to mention it would certainly help Sony make up for shortages of the Slim-line PS2 and PSP.

Even if they do lower the price on the PS2, I for one wouldn't be getting one now anyway. With my recently accquired pre-owned Xbox, there's not a lot I can't get for it that's on PS2.

 

[bell02+]

^ I guess, but I think Sony did say that their controller wasn't final. Though I don't believe that means they are looking to copy Nintendo's controller (or taunt them about it).

I think you are correct about your statements but I don't know if that is completely true. MS is making or at least trying to make the xbox a household name, so people may pick it up if the price isn't too scary. Plus it is releasing in a holiday period. The system also seems to have japanese support outside of tecmo also! That kind of amazed me. The xbox 360 could do better this gen (unless price scares away all)

 

[Mario The World Champion]

Well, I'm glad that the PS3 will be delayed for the time being. It gives me time to decide if I want to buy it or wait 4 years like I did when I got my PS2.

Still, the PS2 at $99? THEY SHOULD HAVE DONE THAT IN 2004!!! ><

I paid $180 for mine in March 2004. >< Bastards!!