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Scientists release updated Hurricane Season predictions

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Fig

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A bit old, apologies for that, but we didn't have The Real World back when I came upon this.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/april2007/

There are still two months to go before the season begins, and of course, prediction can be dramatically affected by shifts in weather pattern (such as the unexpected appearance of El Nino last year), but as the article note, the aforementioned El Nino - one of our great saving grace last year - is gone, and we have almost certainly his evil sister La Nina to contend with this year.

La Nina doesn't like us, and like hurricanes.

The list of Hurricane names for this season will be the same list used in 2001, 1995, 1989 and 1983, with certain changes due to names being retired.

Andrea (Replaced Allison after the 2001 season.)
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto (replaced Hugo after 1989)
Ingrid (replaced Iris after 2001)
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo (replaced Luis after 1995)
Melissa (replaced Michelle after 2001)
Noel
Olga (replaced Opal after 1995)
Pablo
Rebekah (replaced Roxanne after 1995)
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
 
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Just curious, but what gets a hurricane name retired?
 
A nation that was affected by the storm has to petition the World Meteorological organization (WMO) to retire the name.

The WMO assembly then vote on whether or not to retire the name.

2006 saw no retirement for the first time in a long while (the last time before was 1997, also a major El Nino year). 2005, on the other hand, hold the record for most name retired (five - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma), which it filched from 1995 (four - Luis, Marilyn, Opal, Roxanne).

Generally names that are put up for retirement are those of hurricanes with high body count, high economic damage or both. Many countries (Mexico especially) are shy about putting names up for retirement, which is how Emily, despite being a Category 5 hurricane, managed to dodge retirement in 2005.

Only a named storm can have its name retired, for obvious reason, but not all named storms are hurricane (tropical storms, which are generally weaker than hurricanes, are also named). To date, only one tropical storm has been retired without ever becoming a hurricane ; Allison of 2001, which was replaced by Andrea (which we will see for the first time this year).
 
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Intresting names, why don't they try to use names that start with Z, Y, X, and Q?


Its nice to know the names, and I hope we have another season like last year's. It was supposed to be worse than the 05 storms, and it didn't even come close. So hopefully, this year will repeat that cycle. Hurricanes are just so annoying.
 
Probably because there aren't enough names that start with those letters... and no one wants 26 or more hurricanes in a year.
 
They can't predict next week's weather right, so they can't predict a hurricane season. They can only guess, maybe they'll guess right, maybe they won't.
 
That's normally what you would call predicting. It's not an absolute certainty you'll be right, just an educated guess.
 
The_Real_Mr_Sawyer said:
They can't predict next week's weather right, so they can't predict a hurricane season. They can only guess, maybe they'll guess right, maybe they won't.
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The general patterns that make the Atlantic basin favorable to Hurricanes over the course of six or more months are easier to predict than the small scale patterns that affect the weather for a certain place at a certain time.

But enough of that. Less than two months before the next season at least offically.
 
I'm just saying, they predicted an active season last year, and we didn't even get 1 bad hurricane. We could very well get one this year, but I don't trust the weatherman anymore. Its weird hearing them talking about record cold in the south, damaging the crops, and than cut right to Global Warming talk. It just really makes me lose credibility in them.
 
That's what you get for thinking meteorology and climatology are the exact same thing.
 
No one could have predicted the arrival of El Nino last year that brutally put an end to any serious odds of hurricane

What one CAN predict with very little odds of being wrong is that we will NOT get an El Nino this year, because we're getting a La Nina - this is already obvious from water temperatures off the coast of Equator.

Both El Nino and La Nina in the same year is virtually impossible.
 
Thanks for the info, Figment. Now I have another question! I'm confused as to what exactly El Nino is. I remember back in 1997 when everyone was saying it was an El Nino year it rained like hell in Southern California. Last year was comparatively dry though. So how does it effect this area's rain?
 
The Big Al said:
That's what you get for thinking meteorology and climatology are the exact same thing.
Click to expand...



I know they are different, I have little faith in each of them since they are just always wrong. They said that last you would make 2005 look like a good year. It just didn't happen. Maybe there are just somethings that we just can't predict.
 
Or maybe there are factors we couldn't possibly aware of last season (the fact that El Nino was coming) that we ARE aware of for this season (Because we have a definite La Nina already forming)?
 
El Nino came right in the middle of the season. Actually, we were quite active before then compared to the norm.
 
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