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The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Watch Center

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Fig

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Well, in the wake of Katrina, I figured a hurricane topic was appropriate enough, especially as this looks to be a busy season.

I'll reserve the first few posts of this thread to keep updated information on the hurricane situation in the Atlantic.

Some basic terms, courtesy of wiki.

TROPICAL WAVE (or easterly wave) : A tropical wave is an area of cloudliness and thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa during the spring, summer and fall. They often form into tropical cyclones in the atlantic.

TROPICAL CYCLONES : A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system forming over the open sea, which, depending on the exact strength, can be classified as a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or (as if you didn'T know it was coming), a hurricane (or typhoon on the other big pond).

Depressions have winds of less than 38 MPH. At this level they are known by simple numbering (ie, the fifteenth cyclone of the season is "tropical depression fifteen."
Storms have winds up to 73 MPH. A cyclone reaching this level is given a proper name (ie, "Arlene", "Katrina", "Maria", etc)

Category 1 Hurricanes have winds up to 95 MPH
C-2 go up to 110 MPH.
C-3 go up to 130 MPH
C-4 go up to 155 MPH
C-5 is anything above C-4. (These are known as Super-Typhoon in the Pacific)

While hurricanes are the most devastating of the lot, one should not underestimate a tropical storm : Tropical Storm Arlene caused several billions USD worth of flooding damage in Houston only a few years ago. (Of course, it is also an extreme example, and the only tropical storm to have had its name retired).

STORM NAMES
When a cyclone reaches Tropical Storm level, it receives a name.

This name is picked from an alphabetical list, alternatign between male and female name (ie, A is a girl, B is a guy, C is a girl, etc. Hence we now have Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia.... The male/female order reverse every year).

Each of the existing names list is reused every six years (ie, the present list was used in 1999, 93, 87, 81 - another naming system was used prior), although famous storms or hurricanes have their names retired from the lists and replaced by alternate names.

Frances is a case in point : there were hurricane or tropical storm named Frances (Hurricane in all cases but 1998, actually) in 1980, 86, 92, 98 and 2004. There will NOT be one in 2010, however, as Frances has been retired in the wake of the 2004 Hurricane of that name; the F name for 2010 (and possibly 2016, 2022, etc) will be Fiona. (Needless to say, we're not TOO likely to have Katrina on the 2011 list, either, though the official announcement on retired names will be in spring 2006)

The 2005 names list as it stands (and how they've been used so far) :

(Italic means that the system is a current one. IE, it's forming, changing, moving right this moment. The information is thus liable to change. Capitalized names means an hurricane. Strength listed is the strongest they reached).

Arlene (Storm, mid-June)
Bret (Storm, late June)
Cindy (Storm, early july)
DENNIS (C-4, early july, struck Haiti, Cuba, Florida)
EMILY (C-4, early july, stuck Yucatan, then northern Mexico)
Franklin (Storm, late july)
Gert (Storm, late july)
Harvey (Storm, early August)
IRENE (C-2, mid-august, no landfall)
Jose (Storm, late august)
KATRINA (C-5, late august, Struck Florida, then Gulf Coast)
Lee (Storm, early september)
MARIA (C-3, early September, no landfall)
NATE (C-1, early September, no landfall)
OPHELIA (C-1, early september, North Carolina landfall)
PHILIPPE (C-1, mid-september, no landfall)
RITA (C-5, mid-september, Struck Florida, then the Gulf Coast)
STAN (C-1, early October, Mexico landfall)
Tammy (Storm, early October, Florida landfall)
VINCE (C-1, mid-October, Iberian landfall)
WILMA (C-5, mid-October, Yucatan, Florida Landfall)
Alpha (Storm, late October, Hispaniola landfall)
BETA (C-3, late October, Nicaragua landfall)
Gamma (Storm, mid-November, latin america landfall)
Delta (Storm, late november, Azores landfall)
EPSILON (C-1, late november, no landfall expected)

(If we run out of names, the letters of the greek alphabet will be used)
(Incidentally, yes, that means we have a bad year so far, with 3 C-4 or above hurricanes before september (which is the usual hurricane month)

Other tropical depressions.

So far this year only one tropical depression (ten) failed to achieve storm status. This is debatable, however, as remnants of tropical depression 10 combined with another tropical wave to form tropical depression 12 over the southeastern Bahamas : TD12 would go on to reach storm intensity on August 24, and Hurricane on 25. (For the two of you who haven't picked it up yet : Yes, Tropical Depression Twelve = Katrina)

Tropical Depression Nineteen in late september also did not reach name level.
 
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CURRENT TROPICAL WAVES, DEPRESSIONS, STORMS, HURRICANES

Current Tropical Waves :

-Currently active TW, if any, are unknown at this point.

Current Depressions :

-Sub-Tropical Depression twenty-four has been upgraded.

Current Tropical Storms :

-Tropical Storms Wilma is now active. Further development expected.

Current Hurricanes :

-None. Wilma should be one shortly, though.
 
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LIST UPDATE

Maria upgraded to category 2, still not expected to make trouble.

Tropical Wave 93L upgraded to Tropical Depression Fifteen as per USN information.

Tropical Wave 94L added to the list.
 
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From the Discussion forums on Wiki, actually.

NHC Advisory on Baby Fifteen, btw :

000
WTNT35 KNHC 052027
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

...FIFTEENTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350
MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH

Movement predictions for the next 72 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204619.shtml?prob?large

Seems headed for the East Coast. Too early to say anything for sure, tho.
 
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And then they plan it tracking back out to sea due to a powerful high pressure system. Once again, too early to say.
 
Which is exactly what I said (and the five-days prediction was not available by the time I made my call. It does look better with that)
 
AAAAAND we have an N, ladies and gentlemen.

List update

-MARIA upgraded to category 3. It is not expected to grow further, and will likely begin dispersing soon. It still has nothing better to do than spin fishes around.

-NATE added to the list as Depression Fifteen reaches Tropical Storm status. Some further strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours.
 
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UPDATE

Tropical Wave 94L upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen; likely to become Tropical Storm Ophelia early Wedesday. It is presently 180 miles or so south-east of Cape Canaveral, and current forecasts shows it hitting Florida eventually.

Tropical Storm Nate expected to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday.

Hurricane Maria downgraded to category 2 (though it remains listed at its maximum strength in the names listing)

Tropical Storm warning for certain Bahamas islands, part of Florida East Coast posted.
 
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Let's wait and see. It's hardly certain that we'll be getting a hurricane hit shortly at this point. Any of these two could just veer into the atlantics and spin the fishes around some more.

Or proto-Ophelia could veer into the Gulf of Mexico and achieve C-5 strength. Or Nate could spend enough time at sea to reach it, and go along to hit anywhere on the East Coast.

There's little we can do to predict several days ahead.
 
UPDATE

MARIA downgraded to Tropical Storm

NATE information updated : verring back to spin fishes in the atlantic. No landfall expected at this time beyond a likely hit on Bermuda.

SIXTEEN information updated : Landfall predicted in Northern Florida (Jacksonville area).

No new waves or depressions. Nate and Sixteen have not reached new levels yet.

Tropical Storm Watch issued for : Florida East Coast, from Titusville to Flagler Beach.
 
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UPDATE

MARIA re-upgraded to C-1 Hurricane

NATE upgraded to C-1 Hurricane

OPHELIA upgraded (from Sixteen) to Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches in effect for Bermuda

East Coast Florida warnings and watches changed to :

Warning : From Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach
Watch : From Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach
 
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Updateage

No new development on any of the existing storms of hurricanes. Nate is STILL heading for Bermuda (center should pass some distance south, though), Maria is STILL spinning fishes (could visit Iceland as a pretty strong non-hurricane storm, tho), and Ophelia is STILL just lazing around off the Florida coast, essentialy immobile, able to turn in virtually anything, from a tropical storm that dissipates with no effects (best case) to a Gulf-wrecking daughter of Katrina (worst case). Godamn storm is being impossibly obscure.

The NHC had to say on this :

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND STEER OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN
FORECAST SLOW AND LOOPING MOTION JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION...WITH THE NEW
TRACK SIMILAR TO AND JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SOME SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THAT MODERATE SHEAR
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INDEED...IF THE STORM
GETS NORTH OF 30N THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON
THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFDL BRINGS
OPHELIA TO 84 KT...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AT 64
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL
AND BRING OPHELIA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR. THIS IS ALSO A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


Warning area for Fl modified (Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach).

MAP : current location and expected development of the three bad boys of the Atlantic (two girls and a boy, actually) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024624.shtml?basin?large

As you can see, Ophelia REALLY isn't moving.
 
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UPDATE

OPHELIA upgraded to Category 1 Hurricane. More data later.
 
They're predicting that Ophelia will raise temps here to the mid to high 90s over the next couple of days. That's if she doesn't decide to actually hit Florida and finish the demolition work that Hurricane Jeanne started last year.

Only 2-1/2 months left...
 
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