• The forums' spoiler embargo for all content from Pokémon Legends: Z-A's Mega Dimension DLC has been lifted! Feel free to talk about the new content from the expansion across the forums without the need of spoiler tabs!

    Please note that this lifted embargo only applies for the forums, and may still be in effect on other Bulbagarden sites.

The 2007 Atlantic Watch Center

Status
Not open for further replies.
F

Fig

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 29, 2002
Messages
12,778
Reaction score
1,046
As I promised Argy, I am sooo co-opting this forum as the new Hurricanes Headquarters. The official season is still a few weeks off, but things are slowly heating up.

This thread will be for invests, tropical depressions, and the ilk. Once a system gets named, you can bet on me making a new thread for it (unless it really looks like it has no potential) :)

As for things heating up, we already have some pretty impressive systems coming off the African coast in the Cape Verde region. It's (almost ; this IS meteorology after all) certainly too early for them to develop, but the area looks dangerous (or promising, depending on your perspective ; most likely both for most poeple reading this thread) for later this season.

(The Cape Verde, for those of us keeping track at home, gave us Emily of 2005, Ivan and Frances in 2004, Andrew in 1992, Hugo of 1989, etc.)

However, the main source of the heating up is this non-tropical system off the SE United States :

may7.jpg


It will probably not stay over water long enough to become Subtropical Storm Andrea (it already has tropical-storm intensity, it just isn't tropical). But should this thing stall over water, it could well become the opening salvo of the 2007 season, 20-odd days early.
 
With La Nina in play I doubt we're going to get a quiet season. I also doubt we'll luck out with the turning out to sea before hitting the U.S. With things heating up already we might start this season a but early.
 
What's for sure is that this little witch is at 998 MB and failing ; that while it hasn't been OFFICIALY dubbed so, several sub-section of the NHC page have listed this as a Sub-trop system, and that the NWS had at least at one point today a hurricane-force-wind warning in the region.
 
The rate at which we're getting new threads here, I'm not sure we need a sticky all that much.

EDIT : 8:05 PM EDT Discussion is out. The models apparently call for our proto-storm to weaken below Gale-force within 36 hours. Of course, that's the same models that changed their tune about twenty times per storm the past two years, but it's highly unlikely this will be Andrea.
 
Last edited:
2:05AM Discussion is now out. Our little friend is still forecast to weaken, however it is now a "Special Feature" of the tropical discussion, rather than simply getting mentioned in the West Atlantic section.

It is probably worth noting that SSD (Satelites Service Division of the NOAA) has been labeling this system as Invest 90L and a Sub Tropical Storm since earlier today. However, it's not their call to officialy make (Invest is the NRL's call, STS is the NHC's).
 
Last edited:
Some quite significant development on the Notdrea front this morning.

1-She's now officialy Invest 90L, per the NRL.
2-NHC has issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, which looks for all the world like a tropical storm advisory (and even replaced the usual "There are no tropical cyclones at this time" tag), except without a name.
3-The Hurricane Hunters are being brought out to play. (There is a flight requirement for the Atlantic posted for today).

In other news, NOAA has hired a new spokesman lately.

attachment.php


"There are ABSOLUTELY no subtropical storms anywhere near the south-east States at the moment!"
 
Last edited:
Thank God that's not the case. The NOAA is about the only thing still working like it should in this government. Though, that's because the meteorologist hating prick got voted out.

*waits for ShowCreator's third reincarnation come in here and say that's because the NOAA fucks up as it is*
 
100 minutes to the Season's true beginning.

EDIT : and another invest! Invest 92 (91 was a short-lived thing earlier in May, 90 was Andrea), is hopping around the carribeans as we speak.

And Tropical Depression Barbara (no relation to our admin) is having a great deal of fun hopping around the Pacific.
 
Last edited:
And Tropical Depression Barbara (no relation to our admin) is having a great deal of fun hopping around the Pacific.

But...but...the nice people at NOAA promised me they'd name a storm after me!
 
And they're issuing TWOs again :-D

Further on our invest 92 :

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
And here we go again.

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

And :

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS.

It should be noted that while it's not the earliest second storm of the season ever, Barry IS the earliest B-named (and second of the year) Atlantic storm since adoption of storm-naming systems, after World War II.

In fact, the last time we had two storms by June 1st was in 1908...ninety-nine years ago.

We're also two storms ahead of 2005 at this point ;-)
 
Last edited:
Well, can't say it's been active since those two early starters. We're still ahead of most other seasons, mind, but while we've had three more invests since Barry, two of them came to nothing and odds are the third will do the same.

Extensive wind shear over the Gulf probably explains this. However, wind shear is forecast to take a downward hike over the next ten days, bringing wind shear in July to what is usually august level.

Will those forecast prove true? That remains, of course, to be seen.
 
Well, can't say it's been active since those two early starters. We're still ahead of most other seasons, mind, but while we've had three more invests since Barry, two of them came to nothing and odds are the third will do the same.

Extensive wind shear over the Gulf probably explains this. However, wind shear is forecast to take a downward hike over the next ten days, bringing wind shear in July to what is usually august level.

Will those forecast prove true? That remains, of course, to be seen.
 
June and July are usually relatively inactive. Even in this active pattern most hurricane seasons don't start to get hopping until late July. We didn't see so much as a depression in 2004 until the last day of July and we all know how that season turned out.

Still, Florida needs another tropical system (tropical storm or weaker hopefully). Barry helped but those pesky fires are still burning.
 
There's been a pesky wave making its way across the Atlantic. It's not in very favorable waters at the moment but that will as it continues west. WE'll hav to see if it holds together.

Other than that nothing to write home about. Though, this is the quiet period usually. Not every season can be 2005 thank God.
 
What Florida needs is a metric ton of water to be deposited into Lake Okeechobee to help end this drought. We've had some severe thunderstorms lately but they've all be far south of the lake (Dade and Broward counties, mostly).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom