Ok. First, the shocker (for those of you who have not been keeping up to date).
The Conservative Party will (almost certainly) win.
Yes, I know, that's a shock to all of you Americans. And Mozz and GM (and any other friends) are probably secretly gloating about it.
Now, let me explain a few things.
1.1 - This will almost certainly be a MINORITY government. While the conservatives will have more votes than any other party, the (Canadian) Center (Liberals) + Left (NDP, Bloc) should still have more seat than the conservatives.
1.2 - The liberals are losing ground over a series of scandals. The conservatives aren't winning because Canada has suddenly gone religious nuts (more on that later) - the conservatives are winnign because they're about the only credible alternative to the liberals, who have been in power too long and gotten rather corrupt.
1.3 - The Conservatives have distanced themselves from the vast majority of socially conservative ideals they used to present. Their leader, Stephen Harper, had made it expressively clear that he does not intend to touch aborption even with a ten foot pole. He has also promised (though of course, that is a politician's promise) to NOT use the notwithstandign clause in regard to gay marriage. (The notwithstanding clause is a clause of the constitution which allows the government to bypass Supreme Court rulings striking down certain laws as unconstitutional. The old marriages law were struck down as unconstitutial by the SC). Essentialy, the conservatives have gone from being a right-wing party very close to the republicans to being a center-right that's not particularly far from the position, say, Kerry used to defend.
1.4 - In closing, unless the conservatives manage to get a majority (rather unlikely), they most likely will not last all that long as a government, and it is entirely possible that the liberals will come back in strength soon.
The Conservative Party will (almost certainly) win.
Yes, I know, that's a shock to all of you Americans. And Mozz and GM (and any other friends) are probably secretly gloating about it.
Now, let me explain a few things.
1.1 - This will almost certainly be a MINORITY government. While the conservatives will have more votes than any other party, the (Canadian) Center (Liberals) + Left (NDP, Bloc) should still have more seat than the conservatives.
1.2 - The liberals are losing ground over a series of scandals. The conservatives aren't winning because Canada has suddenly gone religious nuts (more on that later) - the conservatives are winnign because they're about the only credible alternative to the liberals, who have been in power too long and gotten rather corrupt.
1.3 - The Conservatives have distanced themselves from the vast majority of socially conservative ideals they used to present. Their leader, Stephen Harper, had made it expressively clear that he does not intend to touch aborption even with a ten foot pole. He has also promised (though of course, that is a politician's promise) to NOT use the notwithstandign clause in regard to gay marriage. (The notwithstanding clause is a clause of the constitution which allows the government to bypass Supreme Court rulings striking down certain laws as unconstitutional. The old marriages law were struck down as unconstitutial by the SC). Essentialy, the conservatives have gone from being a right-wing party very close to the republicans to being a center-right that's not particularly far from the position, say, Kerry used to defend.
1.4 - In closing, unless the conservatives manage to get a majority (rather unlikely), they most likely will not last all that long as a government, and it is entirely possible that the liberals will come back in strength soon.
