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The Recession is Over in the United States!

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hurristat

hurristat

the future is not written
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Which really doesn't mean shit at this point in time. All that it takes to end a recession is to have one quarter of growth. And we did. It's gonna be a long recovery. Anyway, here's the article:

Reuters said:
The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression has ended, but weak household spending as the labor market struggles to create jobs will slow the pace of the economy's recovery, according to a survey released on Monday.

The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association for Business Economics, also known as the NABE, found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.

"The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said.

"The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

Recessions in the United States are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The private-sector group, which does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product, often takes months to make determinations.

The recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest since the 1930s. It was triggered by the U.S. housing market's collapse and the ensuing global credit crisis.

While the economy is believed to have rebounded in the third quarter, analysts believe that ordinary Americans will probably mot see much difference as unemployment will remain high well into 2010, restraining consumption.

"We don't necessarily expect the U.S. economy to fall into a double-dip recession. This time round, consumers will be reluctant to join the party," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

The NABE survey, conducted in September, predicted real GDP growth expanding at an annual pace of 2.9 percent over the second half of this year. Output for all of 2009 is expected to contract 2.5 percent and next year, rebound 2.6 percent.

Much of the anticipated recovery was seen driven by businesses rebuilding their inventories after aggressively reducing unwanted stockpiles of unsold goods to match weak demand.
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Good news, but I am not really going to be jumping for joy until after the winter is over at least. The Commercial Real Estate market is expected to go under over the winter as they experience something that could possibly be on par with what the Housing Market went through/is going through. As Jim Rounds, senior vice president and senior economist at Elliott D. Pollack says "The problems in commercial real estate are just getting started and they will dampen what is already going to be a weak economic recovery"

So umm.. dash of cold water guys, lets hold off on the victory celebrations until at least mid next year.
 
Big Lutz said:
Good news, but I am not really going to be jumping for joy until after the winter is over at least. The Commercial Real Estate market is expected to go under over the winter as they experience something that could possibly be on par with what the Housing Market went through/is going through. As Jim Rounds, senior vice president and senior economist at Elliott D. Pollack says "The problems in commercial real estate are just getting started and they will dampen what is already going to be a weak economic recovery"

So umm.. dash of cold water guys, lets hold off on the victory celebrations until at least mid next year.
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I tried to convey that [see "It doesn't mean shit"]... but it didn't really work. But still, the recession is technically over. Thought I'd post it.
 
hurristat said:
I tried to convey that [see "It doesn't mean shit"]... but it didn't really work. But still, the recession is technically over. Thought I'd post it.
Click to expand...

Ahh my bad, just wanted to point out the troubles we continue to face.
 
Yeah, great. I'll plan the celebration party for when my mom can get her job back.
 
I'm still saying a 60-70% hunch on problems continuing into the summer of 2010 before strong recovery actually begins. And if things spike too soon before a good recovery can begin, well the cycle gets stagnated. XD
 
I'm waiting on unemployment going down two months in a row. That's when I'll throw my party.
 
This doesn't mean anything jobwise, until unemployment drops down, I'll celebrate. :/
 
They say that but....
Well I'll beleive it when I can find a better job.
 
I'll celebrate when I escape the crushing grip of Wendy's and art college. Someday, Pixar, someday...
 
Well accoridng to our government we will be out of recession by the end of the year yet they just announced the Pound is at a record low against the Euro and the Dollar
Ill believe it when i see things improving in this town thankyou very much
and you guys should probably do the same
 
Yay! And my country will probably dip into a bigger one as the green part who was just elected has an idiot for a leader.
 
ashita said:
Well accoridng to our government we will be out of recession by the end of the year yet they just announced the Pound is at a record low against the Euro and the Dollar
Ill believe it when i see things improving in this town thankyou very much
and you guys should probably do the same
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That's optimistic of you, but the recovery will take a very good while, while at the same, haveing a higher possiblility of there being a need for the panic buttton.
 
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