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What will be this year's October Surprise

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The Big Al

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I just love October. The leaves are changing color, making my drive from school to home one of the most beautiful trips of the year. Baseball is in the playoffs (and it's especially good if you're a Tigers fan this year) and the Football Season is in full swing (and it especially sucks if you're a Lions fan). I was born at the end of this month as well.

However, it's not just any October, but an October of an even year. This means it's the last leg of the election cycle here in America.

If you've been living under a rock for the past several months I'll give you a rundown. The Republicans are getting throttled. They're going to lose several US Senate seats and are not going to pick up a single one according to polls. The same for Governorships (now that Dick DeVos has wasted 20 million to say nothing and let Granholm tie Amway around his collar like a tacky bow tie). They're also projected to lose the House of Representives.

So, the $64,000 question is. What will be this year's October surprise? You know, the late season lucky break for the Republicans that rallies their base and wins them the election.

I'm seeing war with Iran. Bush is stupid enough and desperate enough to try to make a new war and claim we'll lose if the Democrats take power. Granted, it will backfire but they don't care.
 
If Bush did make another scapegoat, will several twenty year old guys on a Pokémon forum on the internet be the only people able to see through his devilish schemes? Or will there be many others, but not enough the make a 'threat' to the Republican's popularity?
 
Hurricane Al said:
I just love October. The leaves are changing color, making my drive from school to home one of the most beautiful trips of the year. Baseball is in the playoffs (and it's especially good if you're a Tigers fan this year) and the Football Season is in full swing (and it especially sucks if you're a Lions fan). I was born at the end of this month as well.

However, it's not just any October, but an October of an even year. This means it's the last leg of the election cycle here in America.

If you've been living under a rock for the past several months I'll give you a rundown. The Republicans are getting throttled. They're going to lose several US Senate seats and are not going to pick up a single one according to polls. The same for Governorships (now that Dick DeVos has wasted 20 million to say nothing and let Granholm tie Amway around his collar like a tacky bow tie). They're also projected to lose the House of Representives.

So, the $64,000 question is. What will be this year's October surprise? You know, the late season lucky break for the Republicans that rallies their base and wins them the election.

I'm seeing war with Iran. Bush is stupid enough and desperate enough to try to make a new war and claim we'll lose if the Democrats take power. Granted, it will backfire but they don't care.
Click to expand...

DEMOCRATS TAKE THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE BY 12348413513 SEATS!!

CHENEY, ROVE, RUMSFELD, BUSH, HUNG FOR VALERIE PLAME!!!!oneoneone

KERRY WINS BY 4193% IN 2004!!!!!!11111111oneoneone

Do you just cut and paste DailyKos for each of your posts?

It's entire possible that the Democrats take the house. I'll grant you that. But to say that Republicans are being throttled in the Senate race is an outright lie, considering that most of your polls have the races extremely tight. That and the fact that polls are crap. The only thing that matters is election day. The only polls that are worth anything are at the very end of the race. A 51-49 lead for a Democrat in early October is meaningless. The Democrats have to win every seat in play AND keep all of their own contested seats to win the Senate.

While it's nice to see you end with the daily "NO BLOOD FOR OIL!!!111" service announcement, war with Iran is not going to happen. As long as Bush can talk tough to North Korea for a few weeks, he'll look strong on national security.

The Democrats already blew their October surprise with the "coincidentally" timed Foley scandal, and the media has already shifted from "REPUBLICANS WANT TO FONDLE YOUR KIDS!!!111" to "ZOMG 600000000000000 ZILLION IRAQIS HAVE DIED!!!!1111". I imagine next week's scandal is that "BUSH IS CONTROLLING THE WEATHER TO KEEP HURRICANES FROM MAKING HIM LOOK BAD!!!!1111"
 
North Korea isn't helping Bush either. People are now griping about how Bush couldn't stop them from going nuclear. Why do you think Snow started flip flopping like a fish on a dock the next day? So NK won't be helping Bush like they hoped.

As for the Foley scandal, it's done its job. The religious right have been turned off and there's not much if anything the Republicans can do to bring them back.

And do you really have to come into my threads and make an ass out of yourself? Granted we don't what will happen on election day but all indications show the Democrats holding their seats (New Jersey is the only Democratic seat in any kind of Jeopardy at the moment) and picking off several key Republican seats. And at the moment that's what counts. That's what dictates how the campaigns are handled right now.

I've been following the poles since June and it's been consistantly improving for the Democrats. The fact their tight only increases the likelyhood of an October surprise.
 
Hurricane Al said:
North Korea isn't helping Bush either. People are now griping about how Bush couldn't stop them from going nuclear. Why do you think Snow started flip flopping like a fish on a dock the next day? So NK won't be helping Bush like they hoped.

Uh, North Korea didn't magically start a nuclear program Jan. 21, 2001, and the government has done a pretty good job pinning this on Clinton.

As for the Foley scandal, it's done its job. The religious right have been turned off and there's not much if anything the Republicans can do to bring them back.

I imagine some evangelicals will be dissatisfied, but the idea that they will somehow go to the Democratic party is completely foolish. At worst, they just stay home, though if the Republicans can feign to be in dire straits then they can bring more out.

And do you really have to come into my threads and make an ass out of yourself? Granted we don't what will happen on election day but all indications show the Democrats holding their seats (New Jersey is the only Democratic seat in any kind of Jeopardy at the moment) and picking off several key Republican seats. And at the moment that's what counts. That's what dictates how the campaigns are handled right now.

Maryland is also in play. As for the "indications," they're nothing more than conflicting polls that are within the margin of error. The only asses are people like you who swallow Air America Rose's nonsense about how the Democrats are going to win every single seat without losing one themselves. This isn't going to be 1994.

I've been following the poles since June and it's been consistantly improving for the Democrats. The fact their tight only increases the likelyhood of an October surprise.
Click to expand...

Polls from June are meaningless unless they show a consistently huge lead for one candidate. Otherwise, it is far too early to make any solid predictions, and even now nearly all of the seats in play are too close to call.

EDIT: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=df5df9c0-48e2-4240-bf76-2a114832af4b&q=31217

"OMGWTFBBQHAX!!!!111 CORKER UP 48-46 HE WIN OVER FORD!!!!111"

See how ridiculous this can get? In most of the contested states it's a bunch of varying polls within the margin of error.
 
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Actually, yes it did. When Clinton office their reactors were frozen and they were complying with the UN. Bush office and tells NK to take a long walk off a short pier and hello. The reactors start up, the UN inspectors are kicked out, the cameras are turned off, and they start up a nuclear program.

As for pinning this on Clinton, I doubt it's working as well as you'd think. Granted they're talking but six years is a very long time in the minds of people. The fact Bush didn't stop them is what's ringing in people's ears.

And I was getting at the idea they might stay home. And the Republicans don't really have any bones left.

And how do you this won't be 1994 Dittohead? They aren't going to win every seat but the majoirty is within their grasp. The fact is the winds of change are blowing in Washington. What will the Republicans do to try to stop it?

And it has show a consistant lead for Democrats. Seriously, you need to learn how to track.
 
Hurricane Al said:
Actually, yes it did. When Clinton office their reactors were frozen and they were complying with the UN. Bush office and tells NK to take a long walk off a short pier and hello. The reactors start up, the UN inspectors are kicked out, the cameras are turned off, and they start up a nuclear program.

Uh, Clinton was the one who signed the deal for the light water reactor in the first place as a "compromise." Guess that didn't work out too well.

As for pinning this on Clinton, I doubt it's working as well as you'd think. Granted they're talking but six years is a very long time in the minds of people. The fact Bush didn't stop them is what's ringing in people's ears.

And I was getting at the idea they might stay home. And the Republicans don't really have any bones left.

Perhaps, but the seats that are seizable by the Democrats aren't mostly filled with evanglicals. However, if the Republicans can convince the evangelicals that if the Democrats are in power, we'll see gays, abortion, and sex everywhere (not hard for them to do), they'll diminish the affect.

And how do you this won't be 1994 Dittohead? They aren't going to win every seat but the majoirty is within their grasp. The fact is the winds of change are blowing in Washington. What will the Republicans do to try to stop it?

The only good thing that could come out of a Democratic House is to show people why we took the majority in the first place. 2 years with a Democrat majority in the House and the Republicans will easily sweep back in.

And it has show a consistant lead for Democrats. Seriously, you need to learn how to track.
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"Tracking" doesn't take into effect late-election scandals and pushes by candidates.
 
Oh puh-lease. :rolleyes:

I've heard it all before. The United States won't tolerate a skirt running the congress. All they'll do is try to impeach Bush. Your points might as well be copy and pasted from Bill O'Reily or Ann Coulter.
 
I live in Idaho, supposedly the second-most conservative state in the country, and the Republicans here are even scared. The local newspaper has endorsed the Democratic candidates for both governor and Congress (House District 1). Both are open races, with no incumbents, which is good. It also helps that even a lot of Republicans think the guy supposedly on their side running for Congress is an idiot and an asswipe. I went to a debate between the Congressional candidates that was held at my school a couple weeks ago. He kept avoiding the questions, and the audience was obviously pro-Democrat.
 
http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Something to watch the polls with. (This site and wikipedia have been my primary sources for poll tracking.)

Speaking of the northern tier, it looks like Montana might be going blue on us. A Democrat governor and Senator and the second Senate seat looks like it could be Democratic as well.
 
Hurricane Al said:
Oh puh-lease. :rolleyes:

I've heard it all before. The United States won't tolerate a skirt running the congress. All they'll do is try to impeach Bush. Your points might as well be copy and pasted from Bill O'Reily or Ann Coulter.
Click to expand...

If people so vehemently hate Clinton, what makes you think they'll flip for Abortion Nancy? The truth is that if the Democrats get control of the house, any nutjob can get on a committee and the impeachment bills will be no joke.

And again, conflicting polls right not are not good signs. The general thing is that the Democrats still have to pick up every seat in play without losing one to win the Senate. If they lose even one, then it's meaningless because Cheney will break all the ties.
 
Girafarig_Magcargo said:
If people so vehemently hate Clinton, what makes you think they'll flip for Abortion Nancy? The truth is that if the Democrats get control of the house, any nutjob can get on a committee and the impeachment bills will be no joke.
Click to expand...
1. People don't like Hillary Clinton because she's an attention whore and a lightning rod for bad press.
2. This might be a shock but America as a whole doesn't hold your radical views on choice.
3. Stop projecting the problems with the Republican leadership onto the Democrats.
4. Bush has violated the constitution. Impeachment bills would be justified.
And again, conflicting polls right not are not good signs. The general thing is that the Democrats still have to pick up every seat in play without losing one to win the Senate. If they lose even one, then it's meaningless because Cheney will break all the ties.
Click to expand...
I'll give you that but there will likely be more Democrat Senators come next year than we have right now.
 
Hurricane Al said:
1. People don't like Hillary Clinton because she's an attention whore and a lightning rod for bad press.
2. This might be a shock but America as a whole doesn't hold your radical views on choice.
3. Stop projecting the problems with the Republican leadership onto the Democrats.
4. Bush has violated the constitution. Impeachment bills would be justified.

She's also viewed as a flaming liberal by a great deal of people, and Nancy Pelosi is just as flamingly liberal. I don't live in libertine-land, but America is not enthusiastically supportive of abortion, gay marriage, and other liberal views. I won't even bother addressing the last point.

I'll give you that but there will likely be more Democrat Senators come next year than we have right now.
Click to expand...

The Democrats will pick up a few seats but not enough to unseat the Republicans in the Senate, though they can take the House.
 
That America is less anti-liberal then he thinks. It's just a random joke on the political influences of each side of this debate.
 
This is why American liberals have been so unsuccessful. They think Americans like to be called uneducated, bigoted, rednecks, heartless, bloodthirsty, etc. Once liberals get over the delusion that they're liked by the majortiy of Americans, they can better figure out how to not suck in American politics.
 
Girafarig_Magcargo said:
This is why American liberals have been so unsuccessful. They think Americans like to be called uneducated, bigoted, rednecks, heartless, bloodthirsty, etc. Once liberals get over the delusion that they're liked by the majortiy of Americans, they can better figure out how to not suck in American politics.
Click to expand...
I'm afraid you are the delusional one. I'm a liberal and I can tell you such blanket statements have never been made. I have never heard a liberal say the American people are uneducated, bigoted rednecks. We've said that about individuals based on their positions and actions.

You're once again accusing the misdeeds of YOUR party on to us. It is YOUR party which has made blanket that liberals and anyone who supports them is against God and is against this country. It is YOUR party that has the delusion that you represent the majority of Americans. And it is YOUR that truly sucks at politics. Why else would they stoop to appealing to the worst emotions of the human mind to gain power and dodge questions? You remain in power through manipulation, not performance.
 
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