Mafia USM Ubers Mafia endgame (Town and Genesect victory)

[speedchuck]

Sorry before I respond, can someone tell me what ISO is? It seems it has something to do with who has posted and how many times they posted, but i'm just struggling to put two and two together.

An ISO is a look at someone's posts in ISOlation. Like, if I just look at a list of your posts, that list is your ISO.

 

[Sloonei]

Sorry before I respond, can someone tell me what ISO is? It seems it has something to do with who has posted and how many times they posted, but i'm just struggling to put two and two together.


JJJ- Town
Sloonei - Town
Erishkigal- Town
Nova- Town
Speed- Scum
Deku- Scum
CapsFan - Town
Bulba - Town
Dale Scum
SMS - Scum


Can give thoughts on whichever needed, i'm not majorly knowledgeable on how setups go, even as a host. But I do believe there is less Mafia left than what I have said are scum in the list. (I said 4, I believe there are two left (with an indep) or 3 left with them all being mafia).

Why is CapsFan town?
Why is Deku scum? Why is Dale scum?

What do you need to know? I am happy to give up any information. I will say now that because of the whole ordeal, although it does feel slightly tunnely (I feel like I think like this because its me under attack ) but I feel bulba is town because of the whole thing, I feel like he/she is genuinely trying to provide for town, it's just obvious to me that they should look elsewhere for now.

I am also assuming the mafia knows I'm a target, and that they will be planning accordingly. They would be wasting a kill or whatever else they have if they used it on me, to be completely frank with you.

Why did MCH vote for themselves, I didn't see? Was it just because they were accused? I don't think it is like Eevee where activity was to blame. This has been two situations now where BMGf players have just given up on the game, and voted for themselves. You fellas gotta stop shining us in a bad light

Also I was almost spot on, I assumed Sloonei was the cop and visited me because he personally wasn't sure on me, whereas others had already taken a stance. So I understand completely why he was on me. Turns out he was a JOAT.

I'm interested in your response to me targeting you and to the lack of a night kill last night. You suggested that you knew what happened and that you had used your role correctly, and also seemed to guess at my role. I'm not asking you to claim right now, but it is difficult for me to work out what was going through your head with regards to suspected roles/night actions.

 

[Sloonei]

My argument for caps hasn't changed at all but he has consistently been showing the behavior I liked.

Eresh is talking a lot about game mechanics in a way that feels more specific than the knowledge a tracker with a single result should have. Either they are town that is full of crap or they are overeager scum. I guess I will go back and quote the most egregious post.

What has your argument for Caps been?

Ereshkigal has speculated a lot about what the setup might be based on familiarity with typical bulbagarden setups. They've expressed these opinions confidently, but I haven't got the sense that they're speaking from a position of authority or hidden knowledge of the game. I just think they've got ideas about how bulbagarden games typical go. If Ereshkigal is scum, then that means there's a scum tracker/watcher. Do we think that role exists here?

Not sure how I feel about reading into semantics and then connecting it to authenticity either lol

Just seems like a good way to get burned

It's one of the cornerstones of my playstyle. Mafia to me is ultimately a game of rhetoric, both in terms of persuading others to listen to our arguments, and in the assessment of a player's language compared to their purported behavior/ideas. I feel like CapsFan's language in expressing his suspicion against Calvin suggests artificiality.

 

[bulba account]

Ironically both other role madness games I was in concurrent with this one had a mafia tracker. It's typically town aligned, but it is very strong in the hands of mafia as well. Could be a reason why ereshkigal was willing to claim it early, but that's all speculative

Do you remember caps fan saying he believed eevees Miller claim? I think he is telling the truth.

 

[DekuNut]

So things took longer than I expected last night... a lot longer. But I didn't want to come back until I actually had something, so here's my reads on the Reverent Face-cover Dealer:

I finally got around to reading SMS, and I realized that a lot of what people were scumreading for are just normal things on ZD. Things like his stance on vote switching, his discussion about scum bussing, planting seeds without pushing for the vote yet and playing the long game, etc. They're all very ZD actions imo.
The two most suspicious things were his very tacked-on AE vote and his response to J's suspicions.
I can't find much of an excuse for the vote honestly. He hadn't mentioned AE previously, his post doesn't explain a ton about what changed between posts, there was no chance of AE not getting lynched at that point, and it was so last minute the mod forget to include it in the votals. I think I speak for everyone in wanting him to further address this point.
For the JJ suspicion, I found that his exasperation came from a misunderstanding of the Trustfall exercise. He felt like JJJ was voting him for nothing, since JJJJ hdan't provided active scum reasons besides "no town". That does seem scummy until you read his version of the trust fall exercise - he just made it a regular readlist. He didn't give town reasons for everyone. He misread the point of the exercise - much like his previous forgetfulness regarding Slonei's N1 action. This confusion could also explain why a lot of his analysis is so surface level - he's struggling to get through this game. I haven't had a game this active in years, and I imagine it's the same thing for him.

I was gonna vote SMS last night last minute, but decided I'd rather wait for my ISO of him to do so, and now I'm glad I did. I think we're dealing with a town, if slightly out of it, Mask Man.

I guess I'll read up on Calvin next.

 

[Sloonei]

Ironically both other role madness games I was in concurrent with this one had a mafia tracker. It's typically town aligned, but it is very strong in the hands of mafia as well. Could be a reason why ereshkigal was willing to claim it early, but that's all speculative

Admittedly, I've never played a game here before now so I can't really speculate on the likelihood of a mafia tracker existing here. Most of the setup speculation we've received has been from Ereshkigal.

Do you remember caps fan saying he believed eevees Miller claim? I think he is telling the truth.

I do. It came after the fact and served no real function. It did nothing for me.

 

[DekuNut]

By the way, somewhat off topic... is Calvin Australian by any chance?

 

[bulba account]

Based on time zones I think he would be European. Australian would be a little bit closer to my local time I believe.

 

[DekuNut]

Okay no, nevermind. Don't worry about it.

 

[Sloonei]

Okay no, nevermind. Don't worry about it.

Can I get a quick list of reads out of you? Maybe GTH style if you're feeling up to it. please and thanks

 

[DekuNut]

Can I get a quick list of reads out of you? Maybe GTH style if you're feeling up to it. please and thanks

Working on more ISOs atm for particular people of interest. I'll give you a bigger reads list after I go through a few more of those. That said, really quickly:

TOWN
Sloonei, Bulba, Jim Jagger (I'm having too much fun with his name), SMS
SCUM
Calvin, maybe Caps. I doubt both though. Also have an inkling on Nova. For now the three of them are my main ISO targets. Calvin is almost done, and you should see that post in the next thirty minutes.
IDK, NEEDS TO DIE ANYWAYS
Dale. Show up.

 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay Now do your thing with the fancy graphics and tables

Every time! Does nobody else own Excel?

 

[Sloonei]

Every time! Does nobody else own Excel? View attachment 117687

What's that?

 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

 

[speedchuck]

Gee whiz, what did SMS do?

 

[speedchuck]

I'm going to be a hipster and say that I think SMS is town.

 

[Sloonei]

Gee whiz, what did SMS do?

About the same as you.

 

[DekuNut]

Time for Calvin:

Oh hey its my birthday in the game, does that mean I get birthday lynches?

Also, it's 04:43am so not too sure how active i'll be this early in the phase.

This is why I was asking if he was Australian (honestly since he mentioned the time in that very post I should've realized sooner). I feel like he was trying to hint at his character, and Ruby/Sapphire was released April 3 in Australia. However, not only is he not Australian, but it was April 4 for him at the time, so this doesn't seem to be the case.

I'm not against a day one lynch honestly, it's just the problem of more likely mislynching. Another bad case is should we tunnel on a select player who may have not contributed, or overall looks scummy but isn't, we could be forced to reveal a PR early. Obviously this is the worst case scenario. I see no problem with a no lynch, or a lynch. I know for a fact that this is basically a CWAC post, so I apologise, but I wanted to show my thoughts on the situation of a day one lynch.

I feel like he was really hinting at things here. This post is very important in my read of Calvin, so read it over and have it on your mind as I break down some of his later word choices. I feel like Calvin, if he's scum, has been playing smarter with his word choice than with his gameplay, and I'd be almost scared to play against Scum!Calvin at full force.

Understood, I don't have reads to be honest, I'm trying to gather as much as I can about the outsiders, so I can understand their playstyle, hence the "How does day one go for you" question I asked earlier.



Before I go on, I don't agree with this statement at all, I really don't think Neutral is unacceptable, you said this a few posts earlier.


This means you can definitely have a neutral read, or not a read at all on someone (Null). Neutral is definitely acceptable for now as (using me as an example) AE doesn't have a read yet, or so it seems. The only time I'd find this unacceptable is any time after Day 2.

Returning to your statement, I haven't played in a very long time, but I think the usual plan is to try and gather reads from everyone, (aka what you are doing), but we shouldn't be expecting full side reads already. If someone doesn't have a read on someone, give them some time to analyse the following posts of a player, thus allowing them to get a full read. I also believe how people on Bulba play is that they usually look at people who are inactive and attempt to get them involved in the game.

Disregarding what I said above about no reads, I will say for now that AE seems to be playing his typical style, from what I know he is usually quite accusatory early, which isn't a bad thing. If we used meta for reasoning, I'd lean him on the town side. That being said, meta isn't always the best thing to go off, as people can change their playstyle.

Sorry if my post is confusing, it's 5am and I need sleep. Apologies.

A lot of his day one, I'm starting to realize was CWAC. Even when he was discussing D1 on different sites, those conversations never really did much to help the game. They just gave him presence.
This is probably his second most substantial post D1, as it involves defending someone (AE, of course). But really the only times he HAS contributed, I've found, were regarding either his own defense or AE.

Okay. Hopefully this is a list I can keep expanding on further in the game. I'll be giving reasoning for what I can. Again, apologies for null reads. I agree and know they are not helpful.

Calvin ッ
No explanation needed.
Sloonei
After going back and forth with him/her? (Sorry), towniest vibe in my book after reading through past posts as well. Wants to get to the bottom of the game day one, which is completely understandable. Questions on myself and other players, in my opinion at least were very well made. Although disagreeing with a few points, I believe this is mostly a playstyle / meta thing, and is in no way relating to their alignment. I've not gathered much on them afraid, I'm still trying to deduce how the outside players play, which I think is easier said than done, at least to me. Most posts behind JJJ, nothing seems anti-town at all in their posts. For that reason, until further notice Sloonei is town.
AussieEevee
Not much on AE, i'm purely going of how I remember seeing them play since I returned, and before that. I don't think his accusatory nature is misguided or wrong at all, and seems to be how they play as town. This is nowhere near as solid as a read than Sloonei, as I am using past knowledge and meta for my reasoning.

This does not mean I hate this read either however, I'm struggling to put it into words, but I can see why someone who doesn't play on Bulba would see AE as an iffy read. However, @Sloonei you seem like a decent player, so I will probably expect to see some changes in your reads aswell as my own. What i'm trying to say is that it is fine if you see someone else as mafia, but due to past experience, I am currently on a slight town lean on AE. Remember, this isn't set in stone and can change. The same as any of the other reads on this list. I will be attempting to look for scumslips to the best of my novice ability, which means any and all of these reads can change. This is a very early list.
JaggedJimmyJay
Honestly changed my null read to another slight town read, lower than AE if I had to rank. Reason being at first seemed like mindless spam, but after reading some of the posts that weren't as spammy or jokey, and realising that their home forum is much more active, it just seemed to me that JJJ was trying to crack open day one , not unlike how Sloonei would do it. Reminds me of another player outside of this game that can crack games open day one.

Now, the rest of my reads are neutral / null / just impossible to get a read on.

Dale:
Seems to be only a single post contributing to the game, the rest either pre game or his introduction post. Impossible for me to get a read on someone who has rarely posted. (Not that I am one to post a ton though.)
Max:
Now, I don't know if i'm wrong to say this but Max seems to be CWACing. I apologise if I used the term poorly but in regards to me myself knowing I CWAC'd, I think its fair to say. However, contrary to whoever said it is alignment revealing, I know for a fact as a host, that Max tends to be reserved or doesn't really tend to do much of their own accord. I actually don't want to agree to much with others, but AE's post claiming Max is sheepish is fair.

Also, I can't say I know exactly what situation you meant, plus its another game. And I don't want to seem like I am accusing you of anything. I just want to point out there's a fine line between tunneling for someone, and putting pressure on them. I make it clear I am not accusing you of doing either of these, it is just something I want to be careful of in the future of this game. That is all.
Spiritual Mask Salesman
Low post count makes it hard to garner info again, my DekuNut read is literally null for the reason that SMS has said they are playing the same as they do on Zelda Dungeon, I am just taking his word on it. Back to SMS, hasn't given much to the game, besides helping answer me with my ZD questions.
DekuNut
Null for above reason, just going off someone elses info. Has however, posted more than myself. But a few of these posts were kinda jokey / not serious. Hence meaning nothing to me.
Speedchuck
Changed read after reading through a little bit, like Dale / Max, hard to go off because of low post count.

This is something that doesn't strike right with me, I think this vote is unnecessary, why would voting Sloonei give us a better idea than voting nova? There's not much reasoning behind the vote, at the very least, Sloonei has the reason that nova seems a bit off. speedchuck has the reasoning of well, nothing besides just trying to get a day one lynch, on what I will say, for now is the wrong target. Again, I do not want to seem over protective of anyone at this point, as I understand with AE and Sloonei it may have come across that way.
TheCapsFan
Complete null read, again, not much to go off.

What questions do you specifically want Sloonei (and anyone else for that matter) to answer. I agree with your statement Caps, but I want to know what you think would be a good question.

His reads list, obviously his most substantial post this game. A few obvious townreads, a defense of AE, and a bunch of nullreads. Not really much screaming town on this front.
Two things catch my eye in this post.
The first is, of course, his defense of AE. Not just that he does it, but he does his best to keep Sloon close as he does so. Multiple people have said so far that he's been buddying The Spice, and I think this post best exemplifies that. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he himself is the one who silenced Sloonei (I personally would've been more worried about JJ).
Second is his discussion of Max. First of all, he does describe himself as CWACing (does anyone else read that as quacking?). For a lot of people, if you admit to your own faults before other people do, then they're more than willing to look over that fact. Indeed, it was mentioned by some people, but not focused on a ton. And honestly I'm not sure his CWACing has gone down too much since this admittance. More importantly, however, he mentions his CWACing in conjunction with Max CWACing. He is, in that way, associating himself with Max without buddying up. Associating himself in the eyes of the actives, the ones whose opinions of him really matter. Turns out that Max died pretty quickly afterwards, and now that association can pay off pretty well.

I remind you fine folk that it is day 1 and there isn't much of anything right now.

Half the players here, I don't have any experience wiht, which makes getting vibes off them difficult.

On another note, I just returned with lunch. KFC. Anyone want any? Town only.

I don't know why I quoted this, but I hope it was delicious.

Vote: AussieEevee

Agreed with past reasoning, and in fairness even if someone was to sub in, i'm pretty sure they'd sub in for max first, meaning that we'd have to wait for someone to replace you. This is basically a free way for info regardless.


Yeah... Usually Bulba are told they are Miller, hence a day one miller claim is very common here.


Agreed, OP claims it's specifically not bastard, so I can't imagine the role being in the game.

His AE vote. Even before this he hadn't shown any dislike of AE, and had in fact continued to be supportive of AE before. As far as I can tell, outside of saying that he understands where the AE scumreads were coming from, I don't think he provided any reasons at all for the lynch. Even when he votes he phones it in. The line of reasoning that led to this vote doesn't really make sense.

Actually, now that I think about it, if AE is defending myself, and I am town. What if he defended Max, in a situation where max is also town? Just a quick thought, still not against the lynch, but after the outcome of Night One, I will be reading back and changing my reads list in regards to whatever situation we may find ourselves in.

Once more he's associating himself with Max. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the Max lynch was planned to give Calvin a little bit of unconscious towncred.

I'm pretty sure I stated it in the post, there was no reason not too considering AE wasn't going to provide any help to the game anyway, and that it was literally free info for town. I was also under slight scrutiny for defending him so much that I don't know why I would keep defending. Lastly I would also be reiterating points of the previous voters before me. I'm saying now I will not have much time to defend myself today, and I don't want to outright claim so early, but you do not want to lose my role. Lastly, I also have reason to believe mafia were on me, unless the roleblocker blocked their target, in which case I would have thought they should be saying something. Otherwise, I do believe mafia targeted me, and that I used my role correctly.

No reason not to is not a reason. It's not like voting AE helps you in any way... unless you're looking for towncred for voting for a mafia member.
And this is where things come full circle. Remember the post I mentioned earlier that you guys needed to remember? Go read it again.
"... it's just the problem of more likely mislynching. Another bad case is should we tunnel on a select player who may have not contributed, or overall looks scummy but isn't, we could be forced to reveal a PR early."
That is pretty much what he was hinting about in this post right here. Almost exactly. More subconscious manipulation. This feels planned to me. Does it seem too reachy to you guys? I could just be playing myself here. But I feel like he's had a lot of this planned.

The night actions didn't change anything for my reads if i'm honest with you. I just anticipated Mafia would be inclined to kill me or Sloonei, considering I found Sloonei the most town like player, and vice versa, I also believe I contributed quite a lot day one, as much as my schedule would allow. I assumed Sloonei would be the obvious mafia kill, however, I also thought Mafia might think it was too obvious, and they may have thought the doc was on him, so they went for who they found most townie, does this make sense to you? Apologies if I haven't explained it properly.

And here he considers himself to be shown as tonite as Sloonei if I'm reading it right, even equally likely for a mafia kill, even though earlier he'd known that people saw him as scummy. He claims to have contributed while admitting multiple times to CWACing and that being most of what he did.

 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A few notes on today's pretty chart:

Historically, a trend I noted after running this exercise a handful of times was that mafia members named townies at the highest rates. So Sloonei is bad.

In truth that trend has waned more recently and I rely upon it less than I once did. Instead, interesting bits can be derived at the prerogative of the viewer and relative to contexts current to the exercise and later in the game as more flips/information arrive. I performed the exercise myself and tacked it on at the bottom.

~ SMS joined late and didn't catch up with the early reads. This left him with a sack of 3 mafia and 1 townie in a group that strikes me as default as it pertains to who gets read as a mafioso. I want to see those "nones" filled in. The same goes for Deku.

~ bulba is against the grain on five reads -- Eresh, nova, speed, Caps, and Calvin. I'd be interested to hear about those, apart from Calvin which has already been discussed ad nauseum.

~ nova is still camped on his bulba suspicion. I want to know what developments exist on that read if any.

 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My time is likely to be restricted this night phase. My thesis beckons.