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Mafia Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Endgame, Bulbasaur Victory

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Mint Elv said:
IF THEY DO NOT POST WHAT INFO CAN YOU GET FROM THEIR POSTS????
Did you forget what an inactive is?
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Let's say we flip jaison and he's town. Down the line we flip a mafia. We can go back and look at how the flipped mafia player interacted with these choices between wissen v jaison to potentially discern if wissen is mafia or not regardless of whether or not wissen posts. Vice versa for wissen replacing jaison.

dawn dusk said:
The bold lines
That implies that wissen schaftler is also a scum by your logic, then why shouldn't we Lynch himself rather than jaison crasta. We could verify by that way too. Why should we take risk while eliminating jaison as wissen might have given a false accusation. Why shouldn't we Lynch wissen first and then jaison if he turns out to be a scum.
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We could, but wissen seems to be around more, so they are more likely to come back and clarify what they meant than jaison is to defend themselves. But if they don't come back and clarify, then all we can do is trust wissen's accusation at face value, which means we can get information on wissen by lynching jaison.

Plus I am more inclined to directly follow the finger of suspicion if I am to entertain my theory of occam's razor.

LICH KING said:
Why should we lynch Jaison Krasta, when clearly Wissen has no proof...
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I have explained my reasoning for why I think we should lynch Jaison.

Why are you so quick to assume that Wissen has no proof?
 
TheCapsFan said:
I will spell it out clearly - I think that wissen hasn't played mafia before, and accidentally outed his scumbuddy jaison. To test this theory I would like to kill jaison to see if he is scum - if jaison is scum, then we kill wissen tomorrow. If jaison is town, then we know that wissen was just talking out of their ass - but imo it was worth it at least to check.

If wissen comes forth before the end of the day and says that they have played mafia before, and know how the game works, then they've just made an empty accusation and I'll perhaps look elsewhere.
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Of course he'll say yes now lol
 
TheCapsFan said:
Snowy unvoted.
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My bad, I just saw that Piko also unvoted so the correct votals should be:

Mint Elv (1) - gentlefeather
wissen schaftler (1) - LICH KING
jaison krasta (2) - TheCapsFan, Zexy
RavenRaziel98 (1) -- Mint Elv
 
Honestly I am starting to entertaining Mido's case on Raven a bit more, they suggested a lynch on either jaison or wissen as inactives too fast and we just jumped when JamieIsBored was conveniently ignored.

Unvote : jaison krasta
Vote : RavenRaziel98
 
Let us think of it more holistically

If Raven and Jamie are mafia, Raven would benefit from throwing shade on the others and hoping Jamie gets subbed

If Mido, jaison and wissen are all mafia, Mido would not risk it, the chance of the others flipping is huge, the chance of both being subbed is small, doubt she would out herself so fast by suggesting another wagon, 1 super active 2 inactives as a scum team works better with outright bussing
 
... Wow
This changes things
Not sure how but it really does
 
I was going after wissen schaftler and jaison krasta because they hadn't even confirmed (I later noticed that I was wrong about Jaison in that regard so I went after wissen instead)
This is the only reason I gave Jamie more slack.
 
giphy.gif

Need to be productive right now, will post once I'm more freed up.
 
Unvote : RavenRaziel98
Vote : jaison krasta

I am very unsure about all this, but I think jaison flip gives the most info right now with the least opportunity cost.
 
Zexy said:
Honestly I am starting to entertaining Mido's case on Raven a bit more, they suggested a lynch on either jaison or wissen as inactives too fast and we just jumped when JamieIsBored was conveniently ignored.

Unvote : jaison krasta
Vote : RavenRaziel98
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I definitely forgot about JamieIsBored - I actually thought they played before until just now when I looked it up and saw they haven't, so I was going to give them a little more slack and at least wait until they showed up, but they haven't...

Not sure how to feel about you right now - your likes & +1s to my theory kinda felt like pocketing a bit, but then you jump ship and vote Raven which kinda lessened the pocketing vibes a bit.

Zexy said:
Let us think of it more holistically

If Raven and Jamie are mafia, Raven would benefit from throwing shade on the others and hoping Jamie gets subbed

If Mido, jaison and wissen are all mafia, Mido would not risk it, the chance of the others flipping is huge, the chance of both being subbed is small, doubt she would out herself so fast by suggesting another wagon, 1 super active 2 inactives as a scum team works better with outright bussing
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Definitely agree that Mido would have just bussed, so no w/w between mido & the other two.

Theory on Raven makes sense too.

I'm gonna...stick where I'm at after recent events.
 
If jaison is mafia, wissen is very likely mafia too. If jaison is town, wissen was just spewing nonsense and we can judge the slot by its new sub. Raven and Mido can also be judged later accoridingly. An alive jaison is not really providing as much info going forward though. So yeah jaison flip is our best bet for now.
 
TheCapsFan said:
Let's say we flip jaison and he's town. Down the line we flip a mafia. We can go back and look at how the flipped mafia player interacted with these choices between wissen v jaison to potentially discern if wissen is mafia or not regardless of whether or not wissen posts. Vice versa for wissen replacing jaison
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We can also do the same by lynching you. Difference is we have information going into day 2 lynching you.

Unvote
Vote: Thecapsfan

He’s really pushing the idea of an inactive giving info. And seems to be ignoring my whole point.

Also I have to train someone at work so I won’t be able to get on for a bit.
 
TheCapsFan said:
I definitely forgot about JamieIsBored - I actually thought they played before until just now when I looked it up and saw they haven't, so I was going to give them a little more slack and at least wait until they showed up, but they haven't...

Not sure how to feel about you right now - your likes & +1s to my theory kinda felt like pocketing a bit, but then you jump ship and vote Raven which kinda lessened the pocketing vibes a bit.


Definitely agree that Mido would have just bussed, so no w/w between mido & the other two.

Theory on Raven makes sense too.

I'm gonna...stick where I'm at after recent events.
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I was not trying to pocket, there just is little to work with. And your theory is the best of two right now.

Raven and Mido and even Piko are all far more active and will have more opportunities to out themselves if scum. Lynching wissen's empty slot makes little sense, but we need to find out about them. Jamie is also likely to be subbed, we will get more interactions with that slot and Raven in the future. Jaison however does not seem like the kind of active person that, if let be today, will give us enough to read them on the next few days. Their flip gives us far more on everyone else.
 
On Mido voting Caps, I do not think it is a good idea for actives to target other actives day 1, but this is the kind of interaction that can pay off hard if only one is scum. Problem is chances wise these kinds of things happen a lot between two town and keep the game behind. There is also the super rare case of two scum staging it. I usually prefer doing that kind of case against someone only after we have at least one flip they have acted suspiciously on.
 
Mint Elv said:
We can also do the same by lynching you. Difference is we have information going into day 2 lynching you.

Unvote
Vote: Thecapsfan

He’s really pushing the idea of an inactive giving info. And seems to be ignoring my whole point.

Also I have to train someone at work so I won’t be able to get on for a bit.
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You've changed your "point" like three times, but I will try to address your core point, which I think is this:

Mint Elv said:
But according to Raven they’re inactive? So what do you expect to happen?
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context: I said that it could be fun to start some wagons between the two inactives.
Your argument is that because they are both inactive, this is pointless.

What I meant by "it could be fun to start some wagons between them" was "it could be fun to have both get voted & see who votes where and why."

That way regardless of whether or not one of the two inactives a) flip and b) flip mafia, we might be able to discern their alignments based on future flips, regardless of whether or not they come back to post, by reading back to see how said flips interact with the wagons on the inactives. Do they vote for one? If so, why? Do they shy away from it? Who do they vote for instead? Why might they do this?

Starting wagons between two players is never pointless, regardless of their activity. Even in the case where both are scum, in this game of 13 people where 2 scum is incredibly unlikely, there will always be another player who has to make a decision to either bus one of the two or ignore it completely. I shouldn't have to explain this to you.
 
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