Mafia Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 31st -- Endgame -- Mafia Victory!

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Well since CF just revealed that there are two rolecops, it seems likely there are mafia equivalents for town ones, and if there is a mafia rolecop then I doubt mafia knew Kyriakis role since killing their counterclaim would hurt their own rolecop if their rolecop claimed.

Why would their Rolecop claim Rolecop, though? If you just killed the Town's Rolecop, you have no compelling reason to be honest about your role, because you will never be caught. They can claim any role they want with near impunity now, especially since half the revealed roles so far in this game have been so unconventional (to put it lightly).

 

[Leggo]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Night 3 -- Ill Enough

Seeing what has happened so far with Forgotten being town and Beck lying, Beck looks as scummy as ever in my eyes.

Unvote: Leggo
Vote: Beck

 

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Night 3 -- Ill Enough

Seeing what has happened so far with Forgotten being town and Beck lying, Beck looks as scummy as ever in my eyes.

Unvote: Leggo
Vote: Beck

Do you have thoughts on anyone else? Has anything struck you as strange or unusual? Jumping in and voting Beck was pretty much a foregone conclusion, since you voted for him last phase, but I was hoping to get a better feel of how you view the rest of the game.

 

[Paperhorse]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Night 3 -- Ill Enough

Why would their Rolecop claim Rolecop, though? If you just killed the Town's Rolecop, you have no compelling reason to be honest about your role, because you will never be caught. They can claim any role they want with near impunity now, especially since half the revealed roles so far in this game have been so unconventional (to put it lightly).

I agree with this. It makes no sense that a mafia rolecop would claim that role knowing full well that there is a town rolecop. Unless they didn't know. But why else would Kyriaki be targeted?

Well, I can't say I wasn't expecting a bit more than the info we got from GM.

I think we all know where my vote's going, though.
Unvote: Crystal Onix
Vote: Beck

Question: if you had to vote for someone besides Beck, who would you vote for and why?

Seeing what has happened so far with Forgotten being town and Beck lying, Beck looks as scummy as ever in my eyes.

Unvote: Leggo
Vote: Beck

Same question as Crystal Onix's: If you had to vote for someone besides Beck, who would you vote for and why?

 

[Midorikawa]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Well since CF just revealed that there are two rolecops, it seems likely there are mafia equivalents for town ones, and if there is a mafia rolecop then I doubt mafia knew Kyriakis role since killing their counterclaim would hurt their own rolecop if their rolecop claimed.

Why would their Rolecop claim Rolecop, though? If you just killed the Town's Rolecop, you have no compelling reason to be honest about your role, because you will never be caught. They can claim any role they want with near impunity now, especially since half the revealed roles so far in this game have been so unconventional (to put it lightly).

CF just revealed that GM got two rolecop claims. Soulmasters role revealed we had a town rolecop, thus the only time the mafia could get away with claiming rolecop so easily. And if they chose to claim to GM, then they probably didn't know that Kyriaki was rolecop when they killed her since that would screw over their own.

 

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Why would their Rolecop claim Rolecop, though? If you just killed the Town's Rolecop, you have no compelling reason to be honest about your role, because you will never be caught. They can claim any role they want with near impunity now, especially since half the revealed roles so far in this game have been so unconventional (to put it lightly).

CF just revealed that GM got two rolecop claims. Soulmasters role revealed we had a town rolecop, thus the only time the mafia could get away with claiming rolecop so easily. And if they chose to claim to GM, then they probably didn't know that Kyriaki was rolecop when they killed her since that would screw over their own.

But they wouldn't need to claim Rolecop! Even if they'd kept Kyriaki alive, why would they want to 1v1 her? If GliscorMan shared roleclaims with Scum, then there are no Townies to catch them when they change their story. They have no reason to claim that role, they stand to benefit far more from removing the Town's investigative role from the game than from some future petty 1v1 with Kyriaki.

 

[Leggo]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Night 3 -- Ill Enough

Do you have thoughts on anyone else? Has anything struck you as strange or unusual? Jumping in and voting Beck was pretty much a foregone conclusion, since you voted for him last phase, but I was hoping to get a better feel of how you view the rest of the game.

I think I need a better read on Darrman since he just subbed in. Speaking of another sub, Flipgbh gives me a town vibe.

Besides Forgotten v. Beck, the only strange thing I recall is the posts Crystal Onix made during Day 1 and how he changed his vote frequently during Day 3. I don't know if I should let it slide since Crystal Onix does seem to be new at playing mafia. This makes him a FoS of mine.

GG and Midori are giving me town reads as well due to their passionate arguments concerning what they feel is best for town during Day 3.

Same question as Crystal Onix's: If you had to vote for someone besides Beck, who would you vote for and why?

If I wasn't suspicious of Beck and Crystal Onix and I had to vote for someone else, I think I would vote for some of the people who don't post that much like Rabbit, Neonsands, and Hippowdon to make them talk and convince me why shouldn't I think that they are not scum.

 

[Paperhorse]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Going back through the thread, I found an interesting post.

Plus, just wondering, has anyone claimed granny to you? Only, I have a night action and I don't want to die because of it. (I don't really want names, just a yes or no.)

Now, I wonder why would you ask this question? Because GliscorMan did get a Granny claim. This can't be coincidental.

 

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

That's true, Granny isn't a terribly common role on Bulba - I know it's come up before, but I can't actually remember ever seeing one on BMGf. And what was Flipgbh really wanting with that information? If GliscorMan answered "Yes" was she just not going to use her night action?

 

[HumanDawn]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

I'm really sorry if you don't think I've been contributing much, yesterday was a really busy day for me and I just woke up earlier than usual to even be able to make a morning post.

Can we talk about that nightkill a little bit? I mean, I know nightkill analysis tends to be a WIFOM-y mess, but... Kyriaki had said almost nothing in-thread, and she ends up getting nightkilled immediately after our massclaim and turns out to be our Rolecop?

This reeks of a breach of confidence. Hopefully the list of players GliscorMan entrusted with claims is short, and hopefully someone was entrusted with that list, because now we need it.

Gliscorman shared a few claims with me but none of them had to do with Kyriaki, I'm actually at a total loss because he told me that something would happen and it didn't happen at all and I don't know if it's either very clever Mafia, a breach that prevented it, or somebody fakeclaimed to Gliscorman. I don't like these disallowed private communications either, it's too convenient.

About the identity of who the other Rolecop is, I have an idea from my PMs with Gliscorman, and it's somebody I have grown to have a Town read on, and like Master Mew said I can't make sense as to why the Mafia's would fakeclaim and risk being against a CC if it made total sense for there to be one Town Rolecop. Mind, from what Gliscorman also told me, if this player is also the other Rolecop claim, then they have access to all the information Gliscorman had. If they're Mafia we're pretty much screwed.

Despite this, I think I have reason to believe the game is just full of duplicate Town roles and Phoenicks is just messing with our heads with the counterclaims, which would make it possible for Beck to be telling the truth that he is a Town strongman and his confidence is giving me that impression. It didn't make much sense how Forgotten acted, but in the end I decided to lynch based on who I thought was more trustworthy and that ended up badly.

So yes, before any more votes pile on Beck I'd for people to rethink things through, namely giving your thoughts what I've just said now.

 

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

I'm really sorry if you don't think I've been contributing much, yesterday was a really busy day for me and I just woke up earlier than usual to even be able to make a morning post.

Perfectly understandable. Sorry if I came off overly aggressive there, I'm just not used to HumanDawn being outposted by the Host!

Gliscorman shared a few claims with me but none of them had to do with Kyriaki, I'm actually at a total loss because he told me that something would happen and it didn't happen at all and I don't know if it's either very clever Mafia, a breach that prevented it, or somebody fakeclaimed to Gliscorman.

I take it you can't elaborate on this or you would have?

I don't like these disallowed private communications either, it's too convenient.

I agree.

About the identity of who the other Rolecop is, I have an idea from my PMs with Gliscorman, and it's somebody I have grown to have a Town read on, and like Master Mew said I can't make sense as to why the Mafia's would fakeclaim and risk being against a CC if it made total sense for there to be one Town Rolecop. Mind, from what Gliscorman also told me, if this player is also the other Rolecop claim, then they have access to all the information Gliscorman had. If they're Mafia we're pretty much screwed.

GliscorMan shared everything he knew with one of two Rolecop claims? :-/

Despite this, I think I have reason to believe the game is just full of duplicate Town roles and Phoenicks is just messing with our heads with the counterclaims, which would make it possible for Beck to be telling the truth that he is a Town strongman and his confidence is giving me that impression. It didn't make much sense how Forgotten acted, but in the end I decided to lynch based on who I thought was more trustworthy and that ended up badly.

That's plausible, I could see Phoenicks building a game around discouraging claim-based scumhunting. Thing is, the information you're basing that off of is just information GliscorMan shared with you (unless I'm misreading you), and GliscorMan was convinced Beck was Scum after Forgotten flipped Town. Do you know why he would have drawn such a radically different conclusion from the same data he shared with you?

So yes, before any more votes pile on Beck I'd for people to rethink things through, namely giving your thoughts what I've just said now.

Your theory is compelling, I like it; but the fact that it's based off of information GliscorMan gave you, and GliscorMan seemed to have a vastly different conclusion, gives me some pause (not that GliscorMan's theories have historically been 100% reliable <.<; )

 

[GastlyGibus]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Okay. This lack of private communications is going to really suck. But it is not entirely without it's benefits...

I can't really say more for right now, but the lack of private communications seems to be the activation of an ability, and if so, it simply has to be mafia-aligned. And, as strange as it may seem, given my... eagerness for it earlier, I'm actually going to echo what HumanDawn has said. I think the attention should be shifted from Beck to more probable suspects, at least until we regain the ability to communicate privately.

Call it a gut feeling... but this cut-off of communications is making me rethink some of my previous conclusions. I'll say it again, for this day phase, I think we should focus on a different target instead of Beck. This whole thing just seems far too convenient....

 

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Call it a gut feeling... but this cut-off of communications is making me rethink some of my previous conclusions. I'll say it again, for this day phase, I think we should focus on a different target instead of Beck. This whole thing just seems far too convenient....

Ok. Who? Don't put the onus purely on the rest of us.

 

[GastlyGibus]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Ok. Who? Don't put the onus purely on the rest of us.

It's late, and I'm going to sleep now. Tomorrow, I will collect my thoughts and give some reads. Right now though, I'm too tired to do so. Hope you understand. :/

 

[HumanDawn]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Perfectly understandable. Sorry if I came off overly aggressive there, I'm just not used to HumanDawn being outposted by the Host!

LOL, Phoenicks is like the most active host ever, Beck even joked about it on Skype saying he was in the running for "Most Valuable Player" xP.

I take it you can't elaborate on this or you would have?

If I elaborate on this it would make things harder to know who or not is telling the truth, and I don't like saying what I don't need to say, and even then I don't know the player who was supposed to make the thing happen and even then why lie about it. I would have liked the contact the clear about it, but lolnope.

GliscorMan shared everything he knew with one of two Rolecop claims? :-/

Maybe he got their claim first, told them information, and then Kyriaki claimed?

That's plausible, I could see Phoenicks building a game around discouraging claim-based scumhunting. Thing is, the information you're basing that off of is just information GliscorMan shared with you (unless I'm misreading you), and GliscorMan was convinced Beck was Scum after Forgotten flipped Town. Do you know why he would have drawn such a radically different conclusion from the same data he shared with you?

Yes, he thought I was Mafia because when he asked for my claim he told me he had some lie detection, and the thing is, he only asked me for my claim and apparently expected I add that "I'm Town.", and because I didn't add that along with the claim because I assumed they were the kind that couldn't find out who's lying based on alignment, he thought I was likely to be Mafia. I don't get the logic either, but regardless he thought I was Mafia based on that and because I had a lot of PMing with Beck he thought Beck was Town and Forgotten Mafia, despite the fact I voted for Forgotten...

So yeah, to those wondering what the logic was in lynching Forgotten instead of Beck, that was it, at least from what he told me.

Your theory is compelling, I like it; but the fact that it's based off of information GliscorMan gave you, and GliscorMan seemed to have a vastly different conclusion, gives me some pause (not that GliscorMan's theories have historically been 100% reliable <.<; )

Different players draw different conclusions based on the same information.

I don't exactly know who to vote, I've got to leave now but I'll think it through.

 

[Life]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Sorry for replying to you so late, Beck. I was waiting to see what Forgotten would flip, then I wrote half of this earlier, then ended up having a movie-marathon before I came back here to actually post this.

That's understandable. But do you still believe that I have a higher chance of flipping Mafia after GliscorMan, our confirmed innocent, has stated that it's better that we lynch Forgotten?

To answer your main question (because everything else is pretty much irrelevant now), yes, I do think that you have a higher chance of flipping mafia, especially after Forgotten flipped town. HOWEVER, I still do not think that you are mafia, just that the likelihood of you being scum is now higher then ever. I would like to ask everyone not to be so hasty lynching you. Phoenicks has clearly made this game super complex, and I'm not going to say that just because one is town the other must be mafia. Things are not as obvious as they seem to be.



To answer Master Mew's question before he even asks it, I will also be waiting to post like GG. It's 1am for me and I would like to gather my thoughts and give a better analysis about the players who are giving me scum-vibes. But before I hit the hay, I also find it very odd how Kyriaki was targeted. He didn't seem like a threat at all, and assuming the mafia didn't know about his ability, it adds even more mystery.

 

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Maybe he got their claim first, told them information, and then Kyriaki claimed?

Maybe, but then they wouldn't know everything GliscorMan knew, since they wouldn't know Kyriaki's claim - which was sort of the detail I was focusing on, at least.

Yes, he thought I was Mafia because when he asked for my claim he told me he had some lie detection, and the thing is, he only asked me for my claim and apparently expected I add that "I'm Town.", and because I didn't add that along with the claim because I assumed they were the kind that couldn't find out who's lying based on alignment, he thought I was likely to be Mafia.

I'll admit if I asked someone to claim and told them I'd be Lie Detecting them, I'd be concerned if they didn't include their alignment (unless it was a super-obvious Town role, but I'm not sure such a thing even exists in this setup :XD.

I don't get the logic either, but regardless he thought I was Mafia based on that and because I had a lot of PMing with Beck he thought Beck was Town and Forgotten Mafia, despite the fact I voted for Forgotten...

...What? :-/

So yeah, to those wondering what the logic was in lynching Forgotten instead of Beck, that was it, at least from what he told me.

Ew, really? That's it? Can anyone corroborate that?

Different players draw different conclusions based on the same information.

I don't exactly know who to vote, I've got to leave now but I'll think it through.

Yeah, it's just odd to me that you could both look at a list of duplicate roles and one of you conclude half of them are scum and the other that they're all town. It's possible, but... hm.

If he shared all that with you he must have changed his mind about you (and by extension, pretty much everything else) by the end of the previous phase - why didn't he indicate that Beck was no longer obv-scum in his mind (or did he still think so... somehow... despite now trusting you and throwing out his associative-reads between you, Beck, and Forgotten)?

To answer Master Mew's question before he even asks it, I will also be waiting to post like GG.

Haha, thank you for this. I laughed.

 

[Doctor Floptopus]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Going back through the thread, I found an interesting post.

Plus, just wondering, has anyone claimed granny to you? Only, I have a night action and I don't want to die because of it. (I don't really want names, just a yes or no.)

Now, I wonder why would you ask this question? Because GliscorMan did get a Granny claim. This can't be coincidental.

I asked it because I have a night action and I don't want to die because of it.

That's true, Granny isn't a terribly common role on Bulba - I know it's come up before, but I can't actually remember ever seeing one on BMGf. And what was Flipgbh really wanting with that information? If GliscorMan answered "Yes" was she just not going to use her night action?

No I wasn't, I was just going to be more careful. I have encountered grannies before (once I was killed as a doctor because of one) and they are pretty nasty. For the record, GliscorMan shared next to no information with me, so I don't know about the whole thing.
By the way, I do have a scum read on a couple of people , but I think I'll keep it to myself until we are clear of the whole beck thing so I can see how they act and how he flips.
Unvote: Flipgbh
Vote: Beck

 

[Crystal Onix]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Well, I can't say I wasn't expecting a bit more than the info we got from GM.

I think we all know where my vote's going, though.
Unvote: Crystal Onix
Vote: Beck

Question: if you had to vote for someone besides Beck, who would you vote for and why?

Hippowdon's my next highest suspect. His claiming to have good and bad vibes from everyone already when the game was barely starting. His following Master Mew's thoughts and voting Soulmaster in day 1 felt a little too much like hiding in MM's shadow, riding his coattails for my taste. He accused the host of lying about the roles, and tried to cast other doubts about the host. He was one of four people to vote both Soulmaster and Forgotten. He's conveniently dropped off the face of the thread amidst inquiries about his accusations that the host has been lying to us. This seems to be growing into a pretty substantial list of things to be uncomfortable with.

Besides Forgotten v. Beck, the only strange thing I recall is the posts Crystal Onix made during Day 1 and how he changed his vote frequently during Day 3. I don't know if I should let it slide since Crystal Onix does seem to be new at playing mafia. This makes him a FoS of mine.

Scumminess or lack thereof in my Day 1 posts aside, that I changed my vote frequently in Day 3 is a lie. Leggo now stands out as #3 on my list of suspects, especially considering how I revealed my full role to GM in the mass claim. Not just my title, but the details, so now knowing that GM shared info, the full detail of my role and how to neutralize it could've made it to scum computer monitors by now.

This is the one time I changed my vote in Day 3:
Post #372

 

[Darrman]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 5th -- Day 4 -- Without Him

Ok, I just woke up.

First and foremost: Vote: Beck.